DOGE is disrupting Social Security

One of the smartest moves Donald Trump ever made was promising his supporters that he would not touch their Social Security or Medicare. By making this pledge as explicitly as he did, he distinguished himself from a long line of Republican leaders who appeared to threaten the programs, even though many of them did so out of sincere concern for their fiscal soundness. Democrats were quick to use any attack on Social Security to their advantage. Because of this history, Social Security became known as “the third rail” of American politics—meaning that touching it could be politically fatal.

Yet Trump seems to have forgotten his own political wisdom as he gives his hand-picked advisor, Elon Musk, free rein in the government. Musk initially focused on diversity, equity, and inclusion programs in government agencies, a popular move with Trump’s base. He then turned to dismantling the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) with a brazenness rarely seen in government efficiency efforts. As Musk’s efforts spread to other departments, it became clear that no one would be spared—not even “the third rail.”

The importance of the SSA database

On Feb. 17, Acting Commissioner Michelle King stepped down after refusing to grant DOGE team members access to the Social Security database. This database is among the most sensitive in the U.S. government, as it tracks everyone with a Social Security number and their employment history—from teenage jobs at the local Dairy Queen to the positions from which they eventually retired. It also includes earnings for each job, as the crucial “earnings record” determines how much money individuals receive upon retirement age.

The White House replaced King with Leland Dudek, a mid-level executive at the agency who, at the time of his promotion, was under investigation for illegally sharing sensitive data with the DOGE team. Alarm bells went off all over the country as Dudek seemed to grant access to the country’s most sensitive data to a group of unknown and unvetted DOGE staffers. Cutting off food and medicines to people in developing countries far away from the United States is the sort of thing a president might get away with—but touching Social Security? No way.

At the end of 2024, 54.4 million Americans received an average of $1,975 per month in retirement benefits, while another 8.3 million collected an average of $1,581 per month in disability payments, and 5.8 million received an average of $1,546 per month in survivors’ benefits. Their income is woven into the fabric of the economy. Since many Americans live in multigenerational families, the dollar not spent on Grandma’s groceries is the dollar that can go toward a son’s or daughter’s tuition.

Why the alarm bells? For one, when someone reaches the age to apply for Social Security, the first step is for the Social Security Administration (SSA) to retrieve their earnings record from its vast database. Statutory formulas then calculate benefits based on how much they earned and contributed to the system over their lifetime. Those who earned more money and paid the maximum Social Security tax receive larger benefits than those with lower lifetime earnings. The top benefit for someone who had high earnings and waited until age 70 to retire is slightly over $5,000 per month. Most people, however, receive less than that—the average is just under $2,000 ($1,975) a month.

The greatest concern about unauthorized access to the database is that earnings records could be erased or altered—either maliciously or by accident. A president intent on retribution, for example, could manipulate the earnings record of a political opponent. Errors could also be introduced that erase the last four jobs of anyone applying for Social Security, significantly reducing their benefits. Such a change would save a considerable amount of money, as most people earn more in their 50s and 60s than they did as teenagers.

The Court steps in to stop DOGE

On March 3, former Social Security Commissioner Martin O’Malley warned that while Social Security had never missed a payment, the actions of the DOGE team could cause that to happen within 30 to 90 days. The warning bells were heard.

On March 20, Judge Ellen Lipton Hollander of the U.S. District Court in Maryland issued a temporary restraining order against DOGE employees at SSA. The order explicitly directed all DOGE employees, as well as Social Security employees working with them, to “… disgorge and delete all non-anonymized data in their possession or under their control, provided from or obtained, directly or indirectly from any SSA system of record to which they have or have had access, directly or indirectly, since January 2025.” The Judge further ruled that DOGE employees were enjoined and restrained from “… installing any software, on SSA devices, information systems or systems of record” and ordered the removal of any software they had installed since Jan. 20, 2025.

The fraudulent fraud narrative

The DOGE team at SSA argued that their objective was to identify fraud—not to alter benefit payments. When questioned about their methods, they provided misleading information.

The team reviewed a database called NUMIDENT—short for Numerical Identification—and incorrectly assumed that everyone with a Social Security number eventually received benefits. However, millions of individuals have held Social Security numbers without ever receiving benefits, such as children and young people who die before they reach retirement age. Additionally, millions of people with Social Security numbers do not have a birth or death date in their files. The absence of a death date doesn’t necessarily mean the person is still alive; it may simply mean the death was never reported. NUMIDENT goes back to 1936, when record-keeping was paper-based and less reliable. Computerized death records were not introduced until 1962, meaning information on deaths prior to that year is often incomplete or inaccurate.

Wired Magazine explained why many people in NUMIDENT don’t have recorded birth dates. In the original computing system—written in COBOL, an outdated programming language still in use at Social Security and other government agencies—the absence of data, such as a birth year, was often defaulted to 1875, the year of the first international standards meeting in Paris. Even though these explanations were readily available to the DOGE team, they reported finding millions of individuals over 100 years old whom former President Donald Trump, in an address to Congress, claimed were collecting benefits.

The overall record on fraud in the Social Security system is strong. Accusations of widespread fraud are often misleading when not presented in context. Given the vast scale of Social Security, even small percentages of fraud can appear as large sums. For example, Axios reporter Emily Peck noted that during a press conference on March 18, acting Social Security Commissioner Lee Dudek stated that $100 million is lost annually to direct deposit fraud. The article further highlighted that the $100 million in fraud accounts for approximately 0.00625% of the $1.6 trillion the government distributes annually in Social Security benefits. Social Security is scrutinized regularly. In fact, congressional hearings last year focused on whether the agency was too aggressive in reclaiming funds after accidental overpayments.

Undermining SSA’s ability to fix things

The new leadership at Social Security, under DOGE, has not only gained access to the database but has also sought to reshape the narrative around fraud. Additionally, they have announced plans to reduce the agency’s workforce from 57,000 to 50,000. Employees who voluntarily resign by April 19 have been offered financial incentives ranging from $15,000 to $25,000.

According to the Associated Press, the DOGE website lists 47 SSA field offices among those slated for closure. The agency operates 1,200 field offices nationwide, with most of the targeted closures concentrated in the South and Southeast. Leaders also considered reducing or eliminating phone services for claims processing and direct deposit transactions, which account for about 40% of claims—services that are particularly crucial for recipients with limited internet access.

In other words, if problems arose during the chaotic early months of the Trump administration, there would be no one left to address them. Within about a month, the cuts and resulting turmoil began to strain a system already stretched to its limits by millions of baby boomers seeking to retire. A Washington Post article concludes, “Under pressure from the secretive Musk team, Dudek has pushed out dozens of officials with years of expertise in running Social Security’s complex benefit and information technology systems. Others have left in disgust.”

In what will likely be his final act, Dudek threatened to shut down the agency after the court ruled that the DOGE team could not access the database. The decision sparked immediate backlash, this time directly from the White House, prompting Dudek to issue a mea culpa.

“[The White House] called me and let me know it’s important to reaffirm to the public that we’re open for business,” he said. “The White House did remind me that I was out of line, and so did the judge. And I appreciate that.”

What does it all mean?

The legendary bank robber Willie Sutton was once asked why he robbed banks, and his response—”Because that’s where the money is”—has endured to this day. Similarly, after realizing that large-scale cuts to the federal workforce would not generate significant savings, the Musk team has shifted its focus to where the money is: Social Security.

On March 25, the Senate held a hearing for Frank Bisignano, President Trump’s nominee to be Social Security Commissioner. It came not a moment too soon. Democrats pressed him on the actions of Lee Dudek and DOGE, while Republicans worked to reassure the public that they would not reduce benefits. According to Fortune Magazine, “Bisignano’s an expert at delivering just what SSA needs: Fixing back-office operations by modernizing technology and using those tools to hone customer service.”

Everyone, especially the grandmothers and grandfathers out there, is hoping that Bisignano can help Social Security recover from the two months of DOGE interference.