Can ICE cost Republicans the Senate?

Just a few months ago, Democrats appeared poised to regain control of the House of Representatives but not the Senate. That outlook has since shifted, and for the first time in months, control of the Senate is also seen as competitive.

A major factor in the shift is a decline in public support for the two issues that propelled Trump to the presidency for a second time: affordability and immigration. RealClearPolitics aggregates major public polls on Trump’s overall approval rating and his approval by issue.

From January 2025 to January 2026, 195 different polls measured approval of Trump’s handling of the economy. Of those surveys, only eight showed Trump with a net positive approval rating. Overall, in January 2026, the polling average showed 40.9% approving of Trump’s handling of the economy and 55.3% disapproving.

A slightly smaller number of polls during Trump’s first year in office measured approval of his handling of immigration, totaling 169 surveys. Of those, 69 showed Trump with net positive approval, while the remainder placed him in negative territory on an issue that has long been central to his political identity. Overall, 45.0% approved of Trump’s handling of immigration, compared with 51.6% who disapproved. A review of the polling over time shows stronger performance on immigration in the early months of his administration. Beginning in June 2025, however—after the administration expanded immigration enforcement operations in major U.S. cities, including and Los Angeles and Washington, D.C.—an increasing number of polls showed declining approval on the issue.

Figure 1, drawn from a Reuters/Ipsos poll, illustrates the trend. In the summary below, the approval and disapproval lines begin to converge and then cross in early summer.

When voters were asked, “How much confidence do you have in Immigration and Customs Enforcement?” 55% said they had very little confidence. Republicans expressed higher levels of confidence than other groups, though only 31% said they had “a great deal” of confidence in ICE. Democrats reported very little confidence. Among independents, 8% said they had a great deal of confidence, and 67% said they had very little confidence.

These numbers present challenges for Republicans as they seek to maintain control of the House and the Senate. Historically, presidential approval has been a strong indicator in midterm elections. During the Trump presidency, voter attitudes toward the president have been closely linked to broader electoral outcomes.

Senate races are decided at the state level rather than nationally, raising the question of whether declines in President Trump’s approval ratings on immigration are as pronounced in key Senate states as they are nationwide. Addressing that requires a state-by-state examination of available data on candidates and voters in each race.

There are two open seats, which the Cook Political Report rates as Likely Democratic in Minnesota and Lean Democratic in New Hampshire.

Minnesota has been a focal point of controversy surrounding ICE deportation tactics, an issue that has shaped recent political dynamics in the state. One Republican gubernatorial candidate, Chris Madel, recently dropped out of the race, saying he “… cannot support the national Republicans’ stated retribution on the citizens of our state.” Several Republicans are competing in the Senate primary, but Michele Tafoya, a former sports broadcaster and conservative commentator who was recently endorsed by the National Republican Senatorial Committee, has emerged as a leading contender. Tafoya has criticized the Democratic governor and the Democratic mayor of Minneapolis, Minnesota’s largest city, arguing that their actions contributed to escalating tensions. She has not been closely aligned with former President Donald Trump in past presidential contests, previously supporting Marco Rubio and urging Trump not to run in 2024. Like other Republican Senate candidates in the state, Tafoya faces the challenge of balancing support for Trump with appeals to voters in Minnesota’s largest metropolitan area.

According to the Cook Political Report, there are four toss-up Senate races in November: Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine. Candidates competing in contested Republican primaries in these states will face the challenge of appealing to both the party’s pro-Trump base and a broader electorate concerned about ICE deportation tactics.

In Georgia, Republican Senate hopeful Mike Collins is attempting to win the Republican nomination by aligning with President Trump’s positions. He is quoted as saying, “Our problem isn’t ICE. Our problem is woke indoctrination.” In Michigan, the front-running (and only) candidate for the Republican nomination is Rep. Mike Rogers, who in October defended ICE agents’ actions and suggested sending the National Guard to Detroit. In North Carolina, the Trump-endorsed candidate Mike Whatley attributed the need for ICE operations in the state to former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper, who is running for the Senate. Whatley also welcomed ICE agents to Charlotte.

However, incumbent Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, facing a competitive race, met with Secretary Christie Noem and received a commitment that ICE would withdraw from the state, ending “Operation Catch of the Day,” an ICE operation that had begun nine days earlier. Democrats criticized the agreement, calling it a “pinkie promise.” If the withdrawal occurs, it could influence Collins’s reelection prospects.

In the two states that lean Republican, Alaska and Ohio, Republican candidates have more leeway to support Trump and his administration’s approach to deportation. In Alaska, the leading candidate, Republican Dan Sullivan, has taken a neutral stance, saying both sides “deserved blame” and that “all sides need to focus on de-escalation and lower the temperature so the violence in Minneapolis dissipates.” The race is tighter than many expected with the entrance of Mary Peltola, the representative from Alaska’s only congressional district, who is polling even with Sullivan. In Ohio, Republican candidate Jon Husted defended ICE, saying, “The president said he would conduct the largest deportation effort in the history of the country to fix the errors of the previous four years. That is an enormously complicated task. ICE agents are moms and dads, our neighbors, they’re part of law enforcement that are there to keep people safe.” In Cook-designated likely Republican Iowa, Rep. Ashley Hinson defended the administration, criticizing “…the shameful gross rhetoric from the Mayor of Minneapolis.”

In the two states that lean Republican, Alaska and Ohio, Republican candidates have more leeway to support Trump and his administration’s approach to deportation. However, in Alaska, the leading candidate, Republican Dan Sullivan, has taken a neutral stance, saying both sides “deserved blame” and that “all sides need to focus on de-escalation and lower the temperature so the violence in Minneapolis dissipates.” The race is tighter than many expected with the entrance of Mary Peltola, the representative from Alaska’s only congressional district, who is polling even with Sullivan. In Ohio, Republican candidate Jon Husted defended ICE, saying, “The president said he would conduct the largest deportation effort in the history of the country to fix the errors of the previous four years. That is an enormously complicated task. ICE agents are moms and dads, our neighbors, they’re part of law enforcement that are there to keep people safe.” In Cook-designated Likely Republican Iowa, Rep. Ashley Hinson defended the administration, criticizing “…the shameful gross rhetoric from the Mayor of Minneapolis.”

While there is extensive national polling on the president’s deportation policies, there are few statewide polls at this time. Available data indicate that support for ICE was low in Maine even before recent shootings involving federal agents in Minneapolis that have drawn national attention. In North Carolina, opinions on ICE have been roughly evenly divided. In Ohio, some surveys show a majority of residents view deportations as beneficial to the state.

While Trump’s deportation policies may pose challenges for some Republican Senate candidates in competitive states, Democrats are not assured of gains. Only one-third of the Senate is up for election every two years, and state-level dynamics can counteract national trends, as in 2018, when Democrats picked up 41 seats in the House while Republicans gained two seats in the Senate.

Even more important, however, is the fact that presidents have many powers, not the least of which is the ability to change the conversation. The administration has already begun scaling back some federal immigration enforcement operations in Minneapolis and Maine. Trump has also negotiated with Senate Democrats on measures that would impose certain restrictions on ICE. By next November, public reaction to this issue may have eased, at which point Democrats’ prospects for regaining control of the Senate will depend more on voters’ concerns about Trump’s other major issue—the economy.