Brookings experts continue to offer commentary and recommendations on the unfolding crisis in Ukraine and Crimea. See previous editions of this roundup here and here.
Watch video clips and get full event video plus audio from our event on the crisis featuring a panel of Brookings experts.
Putin sees annexation of Crimea, dismemberment of EU-hugging Ukraine, & defiance of West as payback for 20+ yrs of Russia’s being dissed.
— Strobe Talbott (@strobetalbott) March 8, 2014
Russia and Ukraine, right now, are one nervous 20-year-old soldier’s mistake away from something very, very bad happening that could spin out of control. … There needs to be some kind of de-escalation. Steven Pifer, Bloomberg News, March 8
Fiona Hill, director of the Center on the United States and Europe, spoke on WAMU’s “The Diane Rehm Show” about the West’s response to developments in the Ukraine/Crimea crisis. She explained how Russian President Vladimir Putin’s perspective on Ukraine difference significantly from that of President Obama:
They are actually talking about different situations, because it all depends on one’s perspective … We’re seeing here that what happened on the ground in Ukraine is the outcome of what we see as being a legitimate protest movement. For Putin … he doesn’t see protests as legitimate. Putin has actually created a system inside of Moscow, and Russia more broadly, where the only valid expression of peoples’ opinion comes through the election process; elections actually do matter in Russia. Putin also pays a lot of attention to public opinion polling, just to kind of get the gauge of the overall sentiment. And he tries to cut off any likelihood that people will go out in the streets. He sees protests outside these frames as illegitimate and so what he sees in Ukraine is an illegitimate overthrow of the government.
Steven Pifer, senior fellow and a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, helped negotiate the 1994 Budapest Memorandum of Security Assurances, in which Ukraine agreed to give up its nuclear arsenal (then the third-largest in the world) for certain security commitments from the United States, Great Britain and Russia. In this NPR interview, Pifer said:
I think it’s very clear that Russia is in violation of its commitments, not only to the Budapest Memorandum, but also commitments that it’s made as a member of the United Nations and also as a member of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. What you see happening over the last week in Crimea is nothing less than a Russian military occupation of the peninsula.
Listen to the interview:
Here is some of what scholars are saying on Twitter:
Rob Shapiro: Since 1991, Ukraine economy contracted by 20%. Poland, which looked much like Ukraine in 91, grew 130% http://t.co/tSXHY3E3nJ
— David Wessel (@davidmwessel) March 10, 2014
My NPR All Things Considered interview on 1994 Budapest Memo, #Russia violations & US/UK obligation to help #Ukraine. http://t.co/B0EMceRakt
— Steven Pifer (@steven_pifer) March 10, 2014
Never was MT @LizSly: Ukraine means not much standing in Assad’s way. No chance now of Russian pressure on him to go http://t.co/fYlSC1HKrF
— Tamara Cofman Wittes (@tcwittes) March 9, 2014
More evidence of Putin’s reality distortion field: thought Russian troops in eastern Ukraine wd be welcomed as liberators. Wrong & dangerous
— Strobe Talbott (@strobetalbott) March 9, 2014
.@RichardHaass Yes, #Russia de facto now has Crimea. But does not mean West, #Ukraine should accept it. And may be real costs for Russia.
— Steven Pifer (@steven_pifer) March 9, 2014
Absolute Must-read. Important perspective on Russian losses in Ukraine. “Russia Has Already Lost the War” http://t.co/iBHhoQb9Hm
— Bruce Jones (@brucebrookings) March 9, 2014
Snake inside Ukraine cyber networks…but seems to have been there before crisis http://t.co/NvCitaNJqd
— Peter W. Singer (@peterwsinger) March 9, 2014
If western Ukraine survives as functioning independent state, it will want & get some sort of security assurance from West, thanks to Putin
— Strobe Talbott (@strobetalbott) March 9, 2014
More Ukraine fallout: Russia, already close to violating Reagan-era INF treaty, may suspend New START. http://t.co/VHtO5HaTnQ via @reuters
— Strobe Talbott (@strobetalbott) March 8, 2014
.@CNSWolfsthal @strobetalbott @McFaul Makes EU assoc agreement certain, but membership still big question. NATO remains divisive in Ukraine.
— Steven Pifer (@steven_pifer) March 8, 2014
See our research and commentary archive on Ukraine.
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Commentary
Brookings Scholars on the Ukraine/Crimea Crisis, 3/10/14
March 10, 2014