Saudi Arabia recently rejected a seat on the UN Security Council that its diplomats had spent two years trying to secure, a reflection of the country’s anger over western-stances on Syria and Iran. Then, Saudi intelligence officials said they were “scaling back” cooperation with the CIA in Syria. Earlier, Saudi Arabia expressed its support for the Egyptian military coup by offering assistance in lieu of American foreign aid. Brookings experts have commented on the recent developments and the broader scope of U.S.-Saudi ties, and come to quite different conclusions.
If you haven’t yet, good time to read Greg Gause’s @BrookingsDoha paper on Saudi stability & what it means for the US http://t.co/LtMABZJEBk
— Shadi Hamid (@shadihamid) October 25, 2013
U.S.-Saudi breakup http://t.co/8rYwbs2Sxc I hope they don’t do something against our interests, like say support extremist, anti-US groups
— Peter W. Singer (@peterwsinger) October 24, 2013
Saudi is angry at US for supporting Arab Spring, etc. Actually, though, Obama admin has done relatively little on that front the past 2 yrs.
— Shadi Hamid (@shadihamid) October 24, 2013
Analysis: Saudis standing up for US allies in Middle East | In which I am quoted | http://t.co/fJVmpVqYME
— Mike Doran (@Doranimated) October 24, 2013
Doran, a senior fellow in Foreign Policy at Brookings, told the Telegraph:
I’ve worked in this field for a long time, and I’ve studied the history. I know of no analogous period. I’ve never seen so many disagreements on so many key fronts all at once. And I’ve never seen such a willingness on the part of the Saudis to publicly express their frustration.
… The gumming up of US-Saudi relations causes a cumulative but significant lack of influence by the United States in the Middle East. That influence can only be achieved by a coalition which we don’t have because we’re racing after enemies and dispensing with the interests of our allies.
Make no mistake about it: the Saudi refusal to take a seat at the Security Council is a protest against Obama’s foreign policy.
— Mike Doran (@Doranimated) October 18, 2013
On Tuesday, the day of the Saudi intelligence announcement, Doran, Tamara Wittes—director of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings, and Jeremy Shapiro, a visiting fellow, engaged in a Twitter conversation about it:
12:30 pm, Shapiro
Good or bad thing? RT @Doranimated: Saudi spy chief says Riyadh to “shift away from U.S.” over Syria, Iran | http://t.co/U7DipQEmnO
— Jeremy Shapiro (@JyShapiro) October 22, 2013
12:52 pm, Doran
.@JyShapiro It’s good only if you think the US has no need of allies in the Middle East. Personally, I think it is very bad and avoidable.
— Mike Doran (@Doranimated) October 22, 2013
1:00 pm, Wittes
@Doranimated And I think it’s less than meets the eye & somewhat inevitable. States sometimes have different preferences. @JyShapiro
— Tamara Cofman Wittes (@tcwittes) October 22, 2013
2:06 pm, Shapiro
@Doranimated I agree with @tcwittes US & KSA not ending the relationship. They are fighting over its terms, a good thing from US perspective
— Jeremy Shapiro (@JyShapiro) October 22, 2013
2:09 pm, Doran
@JyShapiro @tcwittes I agree that they are fighting over terms, but we’ve never seen a fight this bad before.
— Mike Doran (@Doranimated) October 22, 2013
2:13 pm, Shapiro
@Doranimated @tcwittes Negotiation in the ME is a full-contact sport. Glad to see the US finally play hardball, good practice for Iran.
— Jeremy Shapiro (@JyShapiro) October 22, 2013
2:59 pm, Doran
.@JyShapiro @tcwittes The place to practice for Iran is on Iranians, in Syria, for example. Playing hardball on allies is small ball.
— Mike Doran (@Doranimated) October 22, 2013
3:31 pm, Wittes
@JyShapiro @Doranimated What’s the evidence that the US is playing hardball with Saudis over terms of their bilateral relationship?
— Tamara Cofman Wittes (@tcwittes) October 22, 2013
Greg Gause, who called the Persian Gulf monarchies, including Saudi Arabia, vital and
dependable allies, wrote in a recent Iran@Saban blog post that:
There is no doubt that Washington and Riyadh disagree on quite a bit these days, from how to handle Syria to the generals’ regime in Cairo to the promise and perils of the Rouhani presidency in Iran, on top of the hardy perennial of Palestine. But these disagreements, while serious, do not rise to the level of a bilateral crisis. There have been even wider disagreements in the past, and the common interests pushing the two countries together remain as salient as they have been over the past six decades.
Still, Gause told NPR that the Obama administration’s turn from a threat of military action against Syria to diplomacy “infuriated” the Saudis, who are looking to limit Iran’s influence in Bashar al-Assad’s Syria:
The Saudis felt that we pulled the rug out from under them and they felt the United States wasn’t following through on what it implicitly promised to do.
Doran, who characterized the state of U.S.-Saudi Arabia relations “unprecedented,” expressed three points on Gause’s view:
3 Points on US-KSA Relations | 1) I think that @FWehrey & Greg Gause are too sanguine about the state of the relationship.
— Mike Doran (@Doranimated) October 16, 2013
Point 2 | I don’t know of another time when DC & Riyadh disagreed on so much at once. The situation is unprecedented.
— Mike Doran (@Doranimated) October 16, 2013
Point 3 | Authors may not be wrong that the US is still the only game in town. But the Gulfies will be looking to change the rules.
— Mike Doran (@Doranimated) October 16, 2013
Wittes, however, has said otherwise:
Saudi & US share key ints in regional stability & security of energy supplies. Divergences on some issues real but not unprecedented.
— Tamara Cofman Wittes (@tcwittes) October 22, 2013
The breathless news coverage of US-Saudi “rift” is likewise not unprecedented.
— Tamara Cofman Wittes (@tcwittes) October 22, 2013
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Commentary
Brookings Scholars on Saudi Arabia’s UN Security Council Seat Rejection, Relations with U.S.
October 24, 2013