Assessing US immigration policy in the second Trump administration

On January 13, 2026, the Center for Economic Security and Opportunity (CESO)  hosted an event to examine the current immigration landscape and reflect on policy developments over the past year. The event featured a fireside chat with Representative María Elvira Salazar (R-Fla.) moderated by Marcela Escobari, senior fellow in the Global Economy and Development program at Brookings, followed by a panel discussion moderated by Tara Watson, director of CESO. The panel included David Bier, director of Immigration Studies at the Cato Institute; Wendy Edelberg, Brookings senior fellow in Economic Studies; Kristie De Peña, director of Immigration Policy at the Niskanen Center; and economics and business journalist Eduardo Porter.

Tara Watson opened the discussion with findings released in a new report authored by Wendy Edelberg, Stan Veuger, and Tara Watson. They estimate a historic shift: Net migration to the U.S. was negative in 2025, a sharp reversal from net inflows exceeding three million in 2023 and two million in 2024. During the panel discussion, Edelberg expanded on the economic implications of this decline: She estimated a sharp decline in labor supply growth and estimated the reduction in immigrant consumer spending lowered GDP by between $40 billion and $60 billion in 2025.

Representative Salazar discussed “The Dignity Act,” which she reintroduced to Congress in summer 2025 with Representative Veronica Escobar (D-Tex.). The goal of the act, Salazar explained, is to reform the current immigration system to better balance the U.S.’ economic and national security concerns. Salazar argued for a system that allows undocumented immigrants with no criminal record to “come out of the shadows” by paying a fine to gain legal status. Salazar emphasized that legalizing this workforce is essential for economic stability, stating that the goal is to create an environment where “everyone can show up Monday morning with no fear.” The bill would not include a path to citizenship for immigrants who participate, Salazar noted, and it would also enhance border security.

David Bier offered a critique of the administration’s enforcement strategy, contrasting the quiet border with the intensification of interior operations. Bier noted that while border encounters have dropped significantly, arrests of non-criminals in the interior have increased tenfold compared to the start of the year. He also warned that with the anticipated “public charge rule,” “we’ll see even further restrictions for all countries and all types of immigrants.”

Eduardo Porter and Kristie De Peña reflected on the shifting public sentiment and the future of immigration policy. Porter cited polling data showing a sharp reversal in public opinion, with ICE approval ratings dropping from +16 in early 2025 to -14 by November, which he attributed to the reaction to mass deportations. De Peña added that while the current policies are restrictive, the disruption forces a necessary conversation about rebuilding the system. Looking ahead to the possibility of a political shift in 2028, the panel was skeptical that the country could simply revert to previous norms, with Porter noting you can’t “put the toothpaste back in the tube.” Edelberg warned that the U.S. faces reputational damage that could drive global talent to Canada, Europe, or Asia over the longer term.