Are Africa’s youth’s aspirations a double-edged sword?

Youth is a time of economic and social transition and evolution. This transition necessarily involves experimentation—learning by doing. In the economic realm, the learning needs to cover important “employability skills,” which can be technical or behavioral. It also involves deepening self-knowledge: What types of activities that make money do I like to do? Do these activities make me feel good about myself at the end of the day? Do I like to work in big groups, small groups, or by myself? What types of interactions am I comfortable with at work?

Aspirations are what jump-start this experimentation and learning process. A long literature has established the relationship between high aspirations and improved labor market outcomes (employment and earnings).¹ It has also established a relationship between economic well-being and psychological well-being, as richer people tend to be happier. Although, as Haushofer and Salicath point out, the causality seems to run both ways; the variables are thus endogenous.²

Experimentation has shown, in Africa, that cheap interventions to raise aspirations can have strong positive effects on economic variables. A research team working in rural Ethiopia showed videos of successful people from the community discussing their paths to success with villagers and found (i) improvements in aspirations in the treated group of adults, and (ii) subsequent increases in labor supply, savings, assets, and the educational attainment of their children.³ A study in rural Kenya, using an intervention designed to raise aspirations and provide knowledge on how to achieve these, showed positive effects on economic outcomes (labor supply, assets, and revenues) 19 months later.⁴ These types of results may suggest that youth employment interventions should target youths’ aspirations, not just technical skills, which are the most common supply side interventions for out-of-school youth.

But research has also taught us that raising youth’s aspirations without creating opportunities for youth to realize them is dangerous. While negative youth employment outcomes, such as high unemployment, are not by themselves correlated with violence committed by youth,⁵ raised youths’ aspirations without opportunities are, in some situations, highly related to terrorism recruitment.⁶

And what if youths’ aspirations are not anchored in reality? A recent study using survey data covering 10 African countries found that most youth want jobs that they are not qualified for and that are rarely being created in their economies, such as secure white collar public sector jobs.⁷ Only 10% wanted to work for the private sector.⁸ In Mozambique, most university graduates in their final year of study had salary expectations over 50% higher than what was achieved by those who gained employment in the post-graduation year.⁹ Students’ salary expectations appeared to be rooted in information regarding the top starting salary achieved by recent graduates.¹⁰ Unemployment in Africa is highest among the most educated, despite Africa having a shortage of educated workers compared with other regions.¹¹ This negative cycle was arguably a factor in triggering the youth protests which tuned violent in Kenya last summer.¹²

What can be done? Policymakers have heretofore focused on supply-side approaches to supporting youth in their transition to economic adulthood. Given the importance of skills, including soft skills, and knowledge in the transition process, these approaches are not necessarily problematic, especially if they are low-cost and effective. But other measures are also needed, including the following recommendations.

• Education systems need to help guide and anchor youth’s aspirations in reality without diminishing their energy and enthusiasm. This is important for middle-class youth, especially women, who may be the first in their family to complete secondary or postsecondary education, and therefore lack role models and mentors who can guide them through the transition to work.¹³
• Ensure that youth learn the employability skills desired by employers. In the short-run this can be done by working with NGOs that have a proven track record in developing these skills cost-effectively. In the medium term, curriculum reform accompanied by teacher training is needed. One example comes from the Educate! program that is now providing advice on the design of employment-focused curriculum to the Kenyan, Rwandan, Tanzanian, and Ugandan governments.¹⁴
• Continue to improve opportunities for youth. This involves supporting medium and large firms (including foreign ones) that pay more and offer more secure jobs, as well as improving the business environment for start-ups and informal enterprises.