Ukraine

NATO is not going to intervene militarily to defend Ukraine’s territorial integrity, nor is NATO prepared for such a contingency. There is really no desire in either the United States but particularly in Western Europe to wage war against Russia over Ukraine.

The ways in which Russia can play with this gas lever, how it can use it, these are not things that they just think of from one day to the next. They've thought out the scenarios; they've gamed it all; they have fallback options; they're using it very tactically.