Pakistan
Reports
Vanda Felbab-Brown
Director - Initiative on Nonstate Armed Actors
Co-Director - Africa Security Initiative
Senior Fellow - Foreign Policy, Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology
[Airstrikes by Pakistani forces inside Afghanistan will carry] significant risks, particularly that of accidental civilian casualties, and there are the obvious sovereignty issues, which could lead to open conflict with the Afghan Taliban.
[Regarding Imran Khan's plan to dissolve two provincial assemblies in a high-stakes attempt to force the federal government to hold early elections,] for all the intense politicking and instability in Pakistan's politics over the years, nothing like this has happened before in Pakistan. If Khan's move on Friday is successful, and that's a big if at this point, the PDM have indicated that they will hold provincial assembly elections and not general elections. Therefore Khan's move, even if successful, is not likely to force early general elections, his goal.
[Despite bilateral efforts to build on the] all-weather friendship, there are signs that the [Pakistani] state has realized some of the disadvantages of an excessive dependence on China and sought to diversify its options — making overtures to the United States, for instance.
Many will find [military leaders' promises to adhere to a policy of non-interference] difficult to believe because ultimately, the reason that Khan lost power in April is that he had fallen out with the military. The outlook for Pakistan is political instability until the next election, whenever it is held.
