Pakistan’s internal dynamics and changing role in the world
The Biden presidency and the future of America’s ‘forever wars’
The future of US policy in Afghanistan
[The Pakistan civilian government and the military] seem to be working very well together, essentially as one unit, in this government.
Given the Afghan Taliban’s links with the Pakistani Taliban [TTP] — both operational and ideological — Pakistan really has to worry about the risks a resurgent TTP poses to Pakistan. It has already seen some of those risks materialize with the release of TTP prisoners from jails in Afghanistan in recent weeks as well as an uptick in attacks against Pakistani security forces. [Pakistan’s] relationship with the Taliban in particular could strain Pakistan’s already troubled relationship with the U.S.
[If...military technology were to pass from the Afghan Taliban to regional insurgents like the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan] that spells disaster for Pakistan.
Pakistan will face security concerns with a Taliban-ruled Afghanistan, chiefly from an emboldened and resurgent Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a terrorist group responsible for killing tens of thousands of Pakistanis. [The developments in Afghanistan may also give a boost to other fundamentalist groups within Pakistan] in a way that renders them more powerful than before and threaten the state's authority. I think Pakistan will have less clout over the Taliban now than it did in the 1996-2001 timeframe.
Everyone is well aware of Pakistan’s troubled relationship with the Afghan government, and its relationship, that has dated decades now, with the Taliban... What [Pakistan] would probably have preferred is a negotiated political settlement with the Taliban in a position of power, but perhaps not the only actor on the stage.
Pakistan is being quite careful about its stance. Pakistan will not be the first to recognize the Taliban given the kind of negative status that gave them in the ’96–2001 time frame. It’s not going to stick its neck out.