Pakistan
Reports
Vanda Felbab-Brown
Director - Initiative on Nonstate Armed Actors
Co-Director - Africa Security Initiative
Senior Fellow - Foreign Policy, Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology
[The military's] veneer of invincibility [has been cracked in the last 48 hours. But the army warned Wednesday that further attacks would be] severely retaliated against. It is still the most powerful institution in Pakistan, and will not let go of that position easily.
Khan's arrest by paramilitary forces – and the manner of the arrest, with dozens of forces in riot gear – is not about any corruption case against Khan, as was the pretext for the arrest, but should be seen in the context of his recent comments against officials in the military and intelligence services. Those comments seem to have been the military's 'red line.' Khan's popular support has protected him against the [military] establishment over the last year; but now that the establishment has asserted itself, it's hard to see it backing down, and difficult to see how the situation will deescalate. This is a very dangerous development.
It’s hard to see how the situation de-escalates from here. Khan’s popular support has protected him against the establishment’s assertiveness until now. But now that the establishment has asserted itself, it’s hard to see it backing down anytime soon. Volatile, dangerous times [are] ahead for Pakistan.
[Regarding fears that the political unrest in Pakistan could lead to a dramatic, anti-democratic intervention, such as a military coup,] it’s hard to see how the political situation deescalates now; this is a very dangerous development and dashes any hopes for Pakistan’s political stability.
[Imran Khan's arrest is] about Khan crossing the military’s ‘red line’ with his recent comments against officials in the military and intelligence services. It is about Khan’s escalating confrontation with the military establishment over the last year, and the fact that the latter sees Khan as an existential threat.
[The military in Pakistan says it has no plans to seize power, but...] Pakistan can't really escape its 75-year history where this was a repeated occurrence. I think now we're hearing rumblings because the crises, you know, plural, are so acute.