On the subdued role of Chief Justice John Roberts during the Senate impeachment trial: “He was at best the Senate’s crossing guard — or perhaps the traffic cop when he admonished the parties to stay civil.”
"The United States political scene is as deeply polarized along partisan lines as it has been for at least a century. It would take a very brave Republican indeed to break ranks with the president under these circumstances."
On the question of bringing witnesses and new evidence into the Senate trial on impeachment: "Democrats will ask, ‘Don’t the American people deserve to know the truth?’ On the other hand, [Republicans] may well calculate that public testimony would create uncertainties that they’re willing to go to considerable lengths to avoid.”
On the role of Chief Justice John Roberts in the Senate impeachment trial: "I don’t get the sense that Roberts wants to be making pivotal decisions. And any senator can challenge and immediately secure a vote to challenge one of his rulings."
"[House Speaker] Pelosi is adjusting her cost/benefit analysis and consulting widely every day. [Senate Leader] McConnell’s outrageous behavior gives her cover to stretch this out to force genuine consultations on rules and witnesses for the trial. If and when she finds the political costs are likely to outweigh the benefits, she will refer the articles to the Senate. But not until then."
“Given the polarized environment, it is not likely that many minds will shift. But if Democrats can boost the number wanting to remove Trump from office from 50 to 60%, that would substantially alter the public opinion climate and make some Republican legislators nervous about continuing to support Trump. They want to make sure he doesn’t take them down with himself.”
"There is little prospect of congressional Republicans abandoning the president as long as this resilience in his job-approval numbers persists. So the key question is whether support for the president among Republican voters will meaningfully erode in the face of a more public presentation of the president’s behavior with respect to Ukraine."