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Will China Liberalize Its Grain Trade? – Appendix

Table 1-1. China’s Grain Exports (1000 tons unless otherwise specified)

Year Rice Bean Corn Total export
  Export % of production % of world export Export % of production % of world export Export % of production % of world export  
1981 590 0.41 £­ 140 1.50 £­ £­ £­ £­ 990
1982 470 0.29 3.90 150 1.66 0.52 £­ £­ £­ 810
1983 580 0.34 £­ 350 3.59 £­ £­ £­ £­ 1150
1984 1160 0.65 9.11 840 8.66 3.26 910 1.24 £­ 3190
1985 1010 0.60 9.03 1140 10.86 4.47 5950 9.32 8.53 9320
1986 950 0.55 7.53 1370 11.80 4.96 5700 8.04 £­ 9420
1987 1020 0.59 8.13 1710 13.71 5.85 3840 4.85 5.97 7370
1988 700 0.41 5.75 1480 12.70 5.66 3520 4.55 5.28 7180
1989 320 0.18 2.09 1250 12.22 5.20 3490 4.42 4.50 6560
1990 330 0.17 2.70 940 8.55 3.60 2890 2.98 4.00 6830
1991 690 0.38 5.38 1110 11.43 4.02 7480 7.57 11.23 10860
1992 950 0.51 6.02 660 6.41 2.27 10340 10.84 14.32 13640
1993 1430 0.81 8.76 370 1.90 1.29 11790 11.48 17.18 15350
1994 1520 0.86 7.24 830 5.19 8740 8.8 13460
1995 50 0.03 0.26 380 2.81 110 0.1 2140
1996 260 0.13 1.37 190 1.44 160 0.13 1250
1997 938 0.47 3.68 190 1.29 6600 6.33 8330

Source: China Custom Statistics, China Statistics Yearbook, and FAO Statistics (various years). [Back]

Table 1-2. China’s Grain Imports (1000 tons)

Year Wheat Others Total grain import Net import
  Import % of production % of world import Import  
1981 13000 18.67 12.62 1470 14470 13480
1982 13800 20.15 13.62 2350 16150 15340
1983 11110 13.65 10.49 2420 13530 12380
1984 9870 11.24 9.29 540 10410 7220
1985 5410 6.30 5.24 590 6000 -3220
1986 6110 6.79 6.74 1620 7730 -1690
1987 13200 15.37 12.23 3080 16280 8910
1988 14550 17.03 12.45 780 15330 8150
1989 14880 16.39 13.57 1700 16580 10020
1990 12530 12.76 11.82 1190 13720 6890
1991 12370 12.89 10.60 1080 13450 2590
1992 10580 10.41 8.71 1170 11750 -1890
1993 6420 6.03 5.67 1100 7520 -7830
1994 7180 7.23 7.17 2020 9200 -4260
1995 11590 11.34 11.80 9220 20810 18670
1996 8250 7.48 8.18 2580 10830 9580
1997 1860 1.51 1.85 2310 2310 -6020

Source: China Custom Statistics, China Statistics Yearbook, and FAO Statistics (various years). [Back]

Table 1-3. The Supply Structure of China’s Wheat Imports (% by weight)

Year US Canada Australia Argentina EU other total
1985 19.03 43.69 21.58 12.11 3.59 0.00 100
1993 40.30 47.61 9.63 1.16 1.29 0.00 100
1994 30.71 49.13 19.75 0.00 0.00 0.41 100
1995 33.15 41.97 3.76 2.20 18.88 0.04 100
1996 26.26 43.84 27.38 0.00 2.52 0.00 100
1997 10.08 71.71 13.21 1.69 2.56 0.75 100

Source: China Custom Statistics (1985, 1993-97). Computed by the author. [Back]

Author

Table 1-4. The Impact of Wheat Imports on China’s Domestic Market (10000 tons)

Year production (A) Commercializing rate [%] (B) Domestic supply (C) Import (D) Total market supply (E) Variation of market supply (F) Variation of import (G) Contribution of import on market variation [%] (H)
1980 5,521.0 24.0 1,325.0 1097 2,422.0      
1981 6,964.0 24.2 1,685.3 1300 2,985.3 563.2 203 36.04
1982 6,847.0 25.9 1,773.4 1380 3,153.4 168.1 80 47.59
1983 8,139.0 26.6 2,165.0 1111 3,276.0 122.6 -269 -219.41
1984 8,782.0 28.0 2,459.0 987 3,446.0 170.0 -124 -72.95
1985 8,581.0 25.3 2,171.0 541 2,712.0 -734.0 -446 60.77
1986 9,004.0 28.4 2,557.1 611 3,168.1 456.1 70 15.35
1987 8,590.0 28.1 2,413.8 1320 3,733.8 565.7 709 125.34
1988 8,543.0 28.8 2,460.4 1455 3,915.4 181.6 135 74.34
1989 9,081.0 28.1 2,551.8 1488 4,039.8 124.4 33 26.53
1990 9,823.0 29.9 2,937.1 1253 4,190.1 150.3 -235 -156.34
1991 9,595.0 31.0 2,974.5 1237 4,211.5 21.4 -16 -74.86
1992 10,159.0 28.4 2,885.2 1058 3,943.2 -268.3 -179 66.72
1993 10,639.0 26.1 2,776.8 642 3,418.8 -524.4 -416 79.33
1994 9,930.0 32.1 3,187.5 718 3,905.5 486.8 76 15.61
1995 10,221.0 31.5 3,219.6 1159 4,378.6 473.1 441 93.22
1996 11,031.0 31.5 3,474.8 825 4,299.8 -78.9 -334 423.59

Source: China Rural Statistics Yearbook Statistics (1996). China Custom Commercializing rate is calculated based on the data of State Planning Committee and State Statistics Bureau. C=A*B, E=C+D, H=G/F*100% [Back]

Table 1-5. Regressive Analysis of Wheat Imports and Price

Period Function type Coefficient of independent variable T-test Correlation coefficient
1981-86 Liner function 0.00750 7.94 0.972
1987-93 Semi-logarithm 0.000465 4.51 0.896

Source: computed by the author. [Back]

Table 2-1. China’s Per Capita Food Consumption (Kilograms)

Year Grain* Vegetable Oil Pork, beef, mutton Poultry Aquatic products
  rural urban rural urban rural urban rural urban rural urban rural urban
1981 256.0 145.4 124.0 152.3 3.1 4.8 8.7 18.6 0.7 1.9 1.3 7.3
1982 260.0 144.6 132.0 159.1 3.4 5.8 9.1 18.7 0.8 2.3 1.3 7.7
1983 260.0 144.5 131.0 164.0 3.5 6.5 10.0 19.9 0.8 2.6 1.6 8.1
1984 267.0 142.1 140.0 149.0 4.0 7.1 10.6 19.9 0.9 2.9 1.7 7.8
1985 257.0 134.8 131.1 144.4 4.0 5.8 11.0 18.7 1.0 3.2 1.6 7.1
1986 259.0 137.9 134.0 148.3 4.2 6.2 11.8 21.6 1.1 3.7 1.9 8.2
1987 259.0 133.9 130.0 142.6 4.7 6.4 11.7 21.9 1.2 3.4 2.0 7.9
1988 260.0 137.2 130.0 147.0 4.8 6.7 10.7 19.8 1.3 4.0 1.9 7.1
1989 262.0 133.9 133.0 144.6 4.8 6.2 11.0 20.3 1.3 3.7 2.1 7.6
1990 262.0 130.7 134.0 138.7 5.2 6.4 11.3 21.7 1.3 3.4 2.1 7.7
1991 256.0 127.9 127.0 132.2 5.7 6.9 12.2 22.2 1.3 4.4 2.2 8.0
1992 251.0 111.5 129.1 124.9 5.9 6.7 11.8 21.4 1.5 5.1 2.3 8.2
1993 266.0 97.8 107.4 120.6 5.7 7.1 11.7 20.8 1.6 3.7 2.5 8.0
1994 257.0 102.0 109.0 121.0 5.7 7.7 11.0 20.2 1.6 4.1 3.0 8.6
1995 258.9 97.0 104.0 118.6 5.8 7.6 11.3 19.7 1.8 4.0 3.4 9.2
1996 256.2 94.68 106.3 118.5 6.1 7.1 12.9 20.4 1.9 4.0 3.4 9.2

Source: China Ministry of Agriculture, China Agriculture Development Report (1996); China State Statistics Bureau, China Statistics Yearbook (1997). [Back]

*Raw grain for the rural people and trade grain for the urban people. The converting ratio of 100kg raw grain to equivalent trade grain is 79kg in 1981, 78kg in 1982, 77kg in 1983, 76kg in 1984 and 74.16kg in the subsequent years.


Table 2-2. China’s Per Capita Raw Grain Consumption (Kilograms)

Year 1989 1990 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996
rural 324.94 326.47 319.67 336.36 326.24 327.01 332.62
urban 279.41 281.77 268.07 244.21 250.19 243.55 242.9
weighted average 313 314.67 305.41 307.23 304.47 302.77 306.27

Source: China Statistics Yearbook (1989-1996), cited from Yang Xie, “Grain Issue in the Process of Urbanization in China,” Working Paper (Beijing: Development Research Center, 1998). [Back]


Table 2-3. Grain Demand in China, 1981-96 (10,000 tons)

Year Direct consumption Seed grain Industrial grain Loss Feed grain Grain demand
1981 24,167.14 1,625.10 1,950.12 1,300.08 5,446.40 34,488.84
1982 24,827.30 1,772.50 2,127.00 1,418.00 5,767.34 35,912.14
1983 25,170.83 1,936.40 2,323.68 1,549.12 6,401.61 37,381.64
1984 25,941.33 2,036.55 2,443.86 1,629.24 6,769.62 38,820.59
1985 25,315.86 1,895.55 2,274.66 1,516.44 6,906.79 37,909.30
1986 25,918.26 1,957.55 2,349.06 1,566.04 7,836.93 39,627.84
1987 26,137.83 2,014.90 2,417.88 1,611.92 7,987.99 40,170.51
1988 26,642.34 1,970.40 2,364.48 1,576.32 7,692.78 40,246.33
1989 27,041.13 2,037.75 2,445.30 1,630.20 8,077.73 41,232.11
1990 27,280.32 2,231.20 2,677.44 1,784.96 8,476.40 42,450.33
1991 26,973.97 2,176.45 2,611.74 1,741.16 9,044.86 42,548.18
1992 25,950.40 2,213.30 2,655.96 1,770.64 9,093.84 41,684.14
1993 26,650.02 2,282.45 2,738.94 1,825.96 9,160.74 42,658.11
1994 26,226.03 2,225.50 2,670.60 1,780.40 9,481.99 42,384.52
1995 26,275.92 2,332.85 2,799.42 1,866.28 9,868.44 43,142.91
1996 26,092.75 2,450.00 2,940.00 1,960.00 10,621.55 44,064.30

Source: Guoqing Long, China: Grain Circulation in Opening Economy (Beijing: China Development Press, 1999). [Back]

Table 2-4. Projections for Grain Demand in China (Million tons)

Year This research Chinese government DRC World Bank OECD IFPRI FAO
2000 481.0 500 NA NA 450 NA NA
2005 506.3 NA 508.6 NA NA NA NA
2010 532.0 550 536.7 NA 513 NA NA
2020 588.9 NA 593.2 608.0 (a) 594 530 (b) NA
2030 640.0 640 633.5 NA NA NA 555.9 (c)

Source: Author’s estimate; Information Office, “On China’s Grain Issue,” Government White Paper (The State Council of PR.China, 1996); See Table 2-2 for Yang Xie (1998); The World Bank (1997); for IFPRI, MW Rosegrant et al., Global Food Projections to 2020: Implications for Investment, food, Agriculture, and Environment, Discussion Paper 5 (Washington, D.C.: International Food Policy Research Institute, 1995); Justin Lin et al., “Chinese Agriculture: Policies and Performance,” Agriculture and trade in China and India, ed. T.N. Srinivasan (San Francisco, California: Institute for Contemporary Studies, 1994). [Back]
(a) The data is for trade grain, equivalent to 687 million tons of raw grain.
(b) International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)’s estimate includes only food grain and feed grain. Adding “other” grain, the total estimate will be 587 million tons (World Bank, 1997).
(c) Not including estimates on feed grain.

Table 2-5. China’s Potential Import Need for Grain (Million tons)

Source: estimated by the author. [Back]

Table 3-1. International Experience of Agricultural Labor Transformation

  Year
Wheat Coarse grain Rice Total
Without tariff 2010 0 71.1 0 71.1
  2020 20.8 186.8 0 207.6
With tariff of 15% 2010 0 27.9 0 27.9
  2020 0 157.4 0 157.4
  Labor force in Agriculture
% of total labor force
Value added of Agriculture
% of GDP
  1970 1990 1970 1990
Japan 20 7 6 2
South Korea 49 18 27 6
China 78 72 35 19

Source: The World Bank, http://www.worldbank.org/data/databytopic/databytopic.html. [Back]

Table 3-2. China-US trade on Agricultural Goods in 1997 (Billions of U.S. dollars)

Items China export China import Balance
Live animals and animal products 0.332 0.214 0.118
Botanic goods 0.168 0.825 -0.657
Oils 0.008 0.198 -0.19
Food, beverage, cigarette and alcohol 0.307 0.275 0.032
Cotton 0.138 0.724 -0.586
total 0.953 2.236 -1.283

Source: China Custom Statistics, monthly report, 12th issue, 1997. [Back]

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