Brookings-Robert Bosch Foundation Transatlantic Initiative

During the war against ISIS, the U.S. was able to quell Turkey's concerns [about U.S. cooperation with the YPG] with the greater good. Kick the can down the road, if you will. [With the counter-ISIS fight winding down,] Turkey sees [continued U.S.] partnership [with the YPG] as an American security guarantee for the YPG and their activities in the region. The U.S., on the other hand, sees its presence as vital to counter Iranian influence and to support the liberated areas. What's happened in Afrin is bringing the contradictions of U.S. policy to the forefront. The move to build a border security force has led Turkey to further doubt the U.S... The U.S. needs a coherent internal plan to solve their differences, and then come up with a regional plan for Syria.

I see [recent high-level meetings between U.S. and Turkish officials] as a Band-Aid, not a long-term solution. Right now we’re in a ‘muddle-through’ phase, with [U.S.-Turkish] relations likely to remain difficult in advance of Turkish elections.

The Turks seem to be walking a fine line between strong rhetoric and finding areas of compromise. Doing the right thing [by releasing Western citizens detained under state of emergency] removes a bilateral irritant but does not fully repair relations.