William H. Frey

Our analysis confirms that President Obama will derive substantial benefit from shifts in the voter pool between 2008 and 2012, though there is considerable—and sometimes—surprising variation across states.

The real question is, will cities continue to hold their own when the suburban housing market picks up? Cities that market themselves well to young people and that offer job growth, cultural amenities and access to rapid transit are likely to see continued growth.

Most of the country is increasing its over-age-45 population simply because people are aging in place. There is some movement among the retired population, but it's not that huge and people who move typically move locally. Florida is the outlier. In the rest of these places the migration is occurring among people under age 45.

In short, cities are starting this decade in a stronger growth position than in the 2000s.

City growth in recent years clearly has ramped up faster than suburban growth has declined, suggesting an increased attractiveness of cities. The real question is, will cities continue to hold their own when the suburban housing market picks up? Cities that market themselves well to young people and that offer job growth, cultural amenities and access to rapid transit are likely to see continued growth.

City growth in recent years clearly has ramped up faster than suburban growth has declined, suggesting an increased attractiveness of cities.