Even before the [Reza Zarrab] trial has started, you’ve got really ramped up rhetoric and tension between [Turkey and the United States], and I would expect that’s going to continue and worsen once the trial actually begins. Going forward, this case is going to breed more mistrust.
Although [Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan] is not charged with any crime, corruption revelations would be embarrassing to him, his family and his inner circle. Turkish reaction to the [Reza Zarrab] trial – especially accusations it is an American conspiracy to bring down the government – could be toxic to Washington’s perception of Ankara.
Erdoğan clearly has a strong personal interest in [Reza] Zarrab’s case, as he has raised it at the highest levels of both the Obama and Trump administrations. U.S. judicial proceedings could also hurt the Turkish economy. Since much of Erdoğan’s popularity resulted from his successful economic reforms, his domestic political support would be undermined by a downturn.