the size of the undocumented population is difficult. Estimates vary according
to the methodology used. While anti-immigrant groups maintain that the flow of undocumented
immigrants has increased, estimates show that over a longer period the number
has declined. An often-overlooked fact is that many illegal immigrants pay
payroll taxes and sales taxes.
Estimates of the number of undocumented immigrants living in the U.S. range from 10.5 million to 12 million, or approximately 3.2%–3.6% of the population.
Immigrants from Mexico have recently, for the first time, fallen to less than half of the undocumented population.
In evaluating the cost of illegal immigration, both benefits consumed and taxes paid must be counted.
A Closer Look
issue of undocumented immigrants has been front and center in American
elections since 2016; it has elicited passionate responses from all parts of
the political spectrum. Here are a few facts voters need as they wade through
the thicket of rhetoric on this issue.
How do we count people who are here illegally?
the size of the illegal population is difficult because, as is obvious, people
who are here illegally don’t always want to tell pollsters their legal status (or
absence thereof.) The first step estimators use is to take data from the Census
Bureau’s American Community Survey, or ACS, which interviews over 2 million
households a year. This survey asks people where they were born and whether
they are U.S. citizens, but it does not ask if they are here illegally. This
yields a total number for the “foreign-born” population.
step is to subtract from that total the number of foreign-born residents who we
know for certain are here legally. Among them are naturalized citizens, people
who have permanent resident status (green cards), and people who have been
admitted as refugees. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) keeps careful
records of the first two groups and the Department of Health and Human Services
keeps careful records of the third. By subtracting the number of people who we know for certain are here legally
from the overall number of foreign-born in the ACS survey we can estimate the
number of undocumented residents.
course, not all undocumented people take part in surveys, and for good reason—they do not want to be found out. So, most
estimates assume that there is an “undercount.” The
Pew Research Center relies, in part, on survey and census data from
Mexico. They estimate the undercount to be somewhere in the range of 5 to 15
percent, which is then added to the number of undocumented immigrants. DHS
believes that the undercount is 10% and adjusts its estimates
of the undercount is a matter of controversy. Opponents of illegal immigration such
as FAIR (Federation for American Immigration Reform) argue that the
undercount is in fact much bigger. To get to their estimates they analyze other
data such as the percentage of migrants who failed to show up for their
immigration hearings and those who have overstayed their visas.
So, what are the numbers?
numbers of undocumented vary according to the methodology used, and there’s
also a lag in the estimates because it takes time for accurate data to become
available. The last estimate released by the Office of Immigration Statistics
at DHS came in December 2018: As of January 1, 2015, there were 11.96 million
undocumented immigrants in the U.S. The most recent Pew Research estimate puts
the total number of unauthorized immigrants at 10.5 million in 2017. Overall,
this represents a minority of the foreign-born population, which in 2017
million—45% of whom are naturalized
citizens, and 27% of whom are lawful permanent residents.
groups maintain that the flow of illegal immigrants has increased, estimates show
that over a longer period the number of undocumented immigrants has declined,
from 12.2 million in 2005 to 10.5 million in 2017 according
to Pew’s estimates. DHS figures don’t go beyond 2015, but they estimate
that the population of undocumented immigrants increased by 70,000 people per
year between 2010 and 2015, compared to increases of 470,000 per year between
2000 and 2007.
Who are the undocumented?
from Mexico have recently, for the first time since 1990, represented less
than half of the undocumented population. According to Pew, in 2017, about 4.95
million of the 10.5 million undocumented population were from Mexico,
1.9 million from Central America, and 1.45 million from Asia. About two-thirds of
undocumented immigrants have been in the U.S. for 10 years or longer. In 2017, just 20%
of undocumented, adult immigrants had lived in the U.S. for 5 years or less.
contrast to the President Trump’s rhetoric about building a wall at the Mexican
border, illegal migration has shifted since 2010 from border-crossing to visa
overstays—the latter share has been greater than border crossings since 2010. The
Center for Migration Studies estimates
that in 2016, 62% of the undocumented were here because they overstayed their
visas versus 38% who crossed the border illegally.
controversy is over how much illegal immigrants cost the system. An often overlooked
fact is that illegal immigrants are taxpayers. The anti-immigrant lobby tends
to ignore the money the immigrants often pay in payroll
and sales taxes while counting the money spent on educating children born in
the United States to immigrants. Numbers vary widely depending on the source,
but undocumented immigrants are not eligible
for most federal benefit programs, like the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance
Program. In evaluating the cost of illegal immigration, the voter has to make
sure that the argument takes in both benefits consumed and taxes paid.
What about the Dreamers?
Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) was implemented by President Obama to
undocumented individuals who came to the U.S. before their 16th birthday to
work in the U.S. and defer any action on their immigration cases for a
renewable two-year period. About 800,000
immigrants have been covered by DACA at some point since it was
implemented; 690,000 are currently in the program. According to Pew, the gap
consists of approximately 70,000 who were rejected for renewal or opted not to
renew, and 40,000 who were able to obtain a green card. At present no new
applications are being accepted by USCIS, so the number of Dreamers is not
likely to grow.
What are the candidates saying?
2020 campaign, President Trump has continued his push for a wall at the
southern border, on top of increased enforcement both at the border and in the
interior. On the Democratic side, all the candidates support a pathway to
citizenship for undocumented immigrants, which would require getting
legislation through Congress. There are also shorter-term proposals that a new
president could enact on their own, like Elizabeth Warren’s plan to reinstate
DACA and to expand
deferred action to include more than the Dreamers. Kamala Harris has
said she would reinstate DACA and implement DAPA, the shelved policy to protect
the Dreamers’ parents. Pete Buttigieg has stated that he would restore the enforcement
priorities set by the Obama administration. A number of the
Democratic candidates have voiced
support for repealing the law that makes it a crime
to cross the border without authorization.
have seen during the Trump administration, the president can do a great deal even
absent legislation to affect the situation of those seeking to come to the