Battleground Michigan: A report from the frontline

Demography

Michigan has a population of about 10.04 million. Close to 15% of the population is Black. More than 200,000 people self-identify as Arab. With a median age of 40.5 years, the population of the state is significantly older than the national average. It is also poorer than average: Michigan stands 39th among the states in per capita income. In 2023, union members accounted for 12.8% of wage and salary workers in Michigan. Approximately 21% of Michigan’s households contain at least one union member. More than nine percent of the state’s voting-age population identifies as LGBTQ+.

Recent elections have been nail-biters, and this year should be no exception. In 2016, Trump squeaked past Hillary Clinton by 10,704 votes, while in 2020, Biden defeated Trump by a bit more than 180,000. This sounds impressive but amounts to only 1.2% of the total vote, which Biden carried by 50.0% to 48.8%.

The political situation

Although Michigan Democrats are cautiously optimistic that they can repeat Biden’s victory in 2024, several factors are curbing their confidence. In Michigan as elsewhere, MAGA Republicans form a large and enthusiastic base for Trump. In 2020, running against the most pro-union candidate in history, Donald Trump received almost four in 10 votes cast in union households and is on track to do even better this year. Trump is heavily promoting the claim that Harris will outlaw gasoline-powered vehicles, causing massive layoffs.

Recent polls show that some Black men are turned off by the prospect of a female presidential candidate, which might somewhat reduce Democratic support in the Black community.

Michigan’s Arab American population of over 200,000 is by far the largest of any state in the country. This spring, outrage in the Arab community over the Biden administration’s handling of the war in the Middle East led to the formation of a group which helped encourage 100,000 people to vote “uncommitted” in the June Democratic presidential primary, which President Biden nevertheless won. Many members of this community believe that Harris has not broken sufficiently with Biden to merit their support.

The key to Michigan: The ground game

Replacing Joe Biden with the Harris-Walz ticket created a surge of enthusiasm among Democrats and younger voters, which has resulted in increased voter registration and record numbers of people volunteering at the 52 field offices (itself a record number) opened by the Biden campaign throughout the state.

Michigan Democrats rely heavily on their “ground game”—with candidates and thousands of volunteers knocking on doors to speak with likely voters—both for president and the down-ballot races. While both parties rely on mailings, social media, TV and radio ads, billboards and yard signs, Republicans, by and large, do not mount a significant ground game and rely on paid canvassers, rather than volunteers.

Although its extent is hard to gauge, a potentially important factor in determining the extent and significance of the ground game in this fall’s election is the unprecedented number of highly competitive races for Congress and the Michigan State legislature. This results from the 2018 amendment to the Michigan Constitution, which placed the job of redrawing congressional and state legislative districts based on the 2020 census in the hands of a citizens commission consisting of representatives of both political parties and Independents, rather than just the Republican-dominated state legislature. Prior to 2022, Michigan was an extremely gerrymandered state, with comparatively few competitive districts. The commission’s work greatly reduced the number of “safe seats” and, in 2022, Democrats elected seven of Michigan’s 13 members of Congress and secured two-vote majorities in both the State House and Senate for the first time in 40 years. Both parties believe that four of the state’s congressional seats (three Democratic, one Republican) and numerous legislative races (as well as the U.S. Senate race) are highly competitive and are spending unprecedented sums to contest them. Democrats are relying heavily on increased numbers of volunteer canvassers.

One Democratic state legislator from a Republican-leaning district of about 78,000 told me that by the end of this year’s campaign, she will have knocked on 30,000 doors. Taking all participating groups into account, the number of Michigan voters reached directly by Democratic-leaning civic groups could approach one million.

Other important forces at work in 2024

The “gender gap” will play a very important role in the election. For example, a recent Marist poll found that 56% of Michigan women favor Harris and 52% of men favor Trump. In 2020, the Michigan electorate was 54% women and 46% men. If the same gender imbalance occurs in the 2024 race, Harris will win by 320,000 votes, or 5.92%. (Most polls indicate a substantially lower lead for Harris, however.)

Democrats also are heartened by the unity and cohesiveness within their party’s ranks, while the Republicans are in disarray. The battle between their MAGA and traditional wings has led to the financial bankruptcy of the Republican state party and litigation to determine the legitimacy of its party chairman as well as numerous divisive internal fights involving control of county organizations and primary candidates. The impact on voting behavior caused by the disaffection of traditional Republicans as a result of the MAGA takeover is hard to assess. However, there is strong anecdotal evidence of Republican “Trump fatigue” reported both by local media and Democratic candidates who have been knocking on doors. I’ve also had friends who are prominent Republicans and important donors bemoan the loss of the heroes of their youth—Romney, Milliken, Rockefeller, Lindsay, and McCain—and the need to preserve our democracy. They worry about Trump’s unsavory lifestyle, his bombastic demeanor, his instability in running the government, and his destructive attack on our democratic institutions. Others have told me they are not going to vote for Trump but can’t bring themselves to vote for Harris.

While the Middle East conflict resulted in more than 100,000 “uncommitted” votes in the June Democratic primary in Michigan in protest of America’s support for Israel, its impact on the fall election could be more muted. A robust internal debate continues among traditional Democratic voters in the Arab and Black Muslim communities whether fear of a Trump presidency should overcome their anger about the administration’s handling of the war in Gaza. Recently, a number of Black Muslim imams in Detroit endorsed Harris. Last week, one of the principal organizers of the “uncommitted” movement told a meeting of its organizers that while the group itself should not endorse Harris, he personally planned to vote for her and strongly advocated that others join him in doing so.

Both campaigns have made Michigan a top priority with frequent visits by their presidential and vice presidential candidates. Trump is pitching hard for auto union workers’ support and championing his plans for high protective tariffs as well as his misinformation about immigration and an alleged crime wave. While addressing the Economic Club of Detroit, whose members include Detroit’s business and civic leaders, he went out of his way to say Detroit was declining and that if Harris were to be elected, other American cities would become equally bad. As one might imagine, this remark provoked an uproar.

Kamala Harris has created a strong, favorable impression among Democratic activists. As vice president she remained largely in the shadows, but since President Biden stepped aside, they believe that she appears strong, smart, and presidential—in stark contrast to Trump. She stresses the achievements of the Biden administration in the economy—especially the revitalization of U.S. manufacturing in the United States—along with her support for the middle class, the availability of health care, and women’s right to choose.

Democrats also are working hard to lower the public’s assessment of Trump, citing his age, volatile and unstable personality, felony convictions, and mistreatment of women. They point to the large number of Republicans who have served in government with him and have announced they feel he is dangerous and unfit to be entrusted with the presidency again.

An additional uncertainty about the Michigan election is the degree to which Republicans will attempt to disrupt the certification of the results in order to enable the presidency to be determined by the courts or Congress. Michigan Democrats have prepared extensively to stymie any such attempt to disrupt voting, the counting of absentee ballots, and the certification of election results.

In addition to the activity of Michigan’s secretary of state and the state election director, a significant number of nonprofit organizations have met with local officials to review the proper safeguards to assure a smooth election. One of these groups, Keep Our Republic, a national, bipartisan organization formed to assure election integrity and public confidence in our system, has met extensively with local election officials in Michigan as well as other “battleground states” and organized an event on September 19 held at the Gerald R. Ford Library in Ann Arbor, Michigan. It was underwritten by the Gerald R. Ford Foundation based in Grand Rapids and featured a panel consisting of the top election officials from Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Michigan. It was attended by approximately 20 leading news organizations including the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Washington Post, ABC, NBC, CBS and CNN. (Regrettably, despite several invitations, Fox News did not attend.)

During daytime sessions lasting four to five hours followed by the opportunity for informal discussions, the election officials each described in depth how elections are run in their states and how they assure election integrity so that only citizens vote, the registration lists are accurate, people vote only once, voting tabulators are accurate (which are not connected to the internet and merely count the votes on the paper ballots manually inserted into them by voters), and the methods of certifying election results are followed. That evening, panelists conducted a two-hour town hall meeting attended by more than 200 members of the public where they again made presentations and answered questions.

Notwithstanding Michigan’s long history of election integrity, and meetings like the September 19 symposium, MAGA Republicans in Michigan still assert that the 2020 election was stolen, and that Trump really won in Michigan—a charge echoed by Michigan’s Republican leadership. On September 26, according to a Detroit News report, Republican Party Chairman Pete Hoekstra told the crowd at a fundraiser that he was concerned Democrats “will steal some votes” in a potentially close U.S. Senate race.

The impact of Trump’s ungrounded assertions about the 2020 election results is hard to assess. It is unclear how many Independents and Republicans will heed these words of Adlai Stevenson II: “Those who corrupt the public mind are just as evil as those who steal from the public purse.” Not only the contest in Michigan, but also the fate of American democracy, may well rest on their response.