America’s electoral future: How changing demographics could impact presidential elections from 2016 to 2032

William H. Frey, Ruy Teixeira, and
Ruy Teixeira
Ruy Teixeira Nonresident Senior Fellow - American Enterprise Institute, Former Brookings Expert
Rob Griffin
Rob Griffin Research Director - Democracy Fund Voter Study Group

February 25, 2016

The States of Change: Demographics and Democracy project is a collaboration supported by the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation that brings together the Center for American Progress, the American Enterprise Institute, and demographer William H. Frey of the Brookings Institution.

The project’s goals are:

  • To document and analyze the challenges to democracy posed by the rapid demographic evolution from the 1970s to 2060.
  • To project the race-ethnic composition of every state to 2060, which has not been done for 20 years.
  • To promote a wide-ranging and bipartisan discussion of America’s demographic future and what it portends for the nation’s political parties and policy.

The second phase of the project has two parts that culminated in a conference at AEI on Thursday, February 25, 2016. First, a new report projects presidential election outcomes from 2016 through 2032 based on likely racial and age demographics and a range of possible turnout and support patterns. These are simulations—not predictions—since the candidates, issues, and voters matter greatly, of course.

Read the 2016 report here

Next, the project has assembled a bipartisan group of experts to analyze in a series of six papers possible policy implications of demographic change for the family, the workforce, and the social contract.

Read the related 2016 papers here

The report’s findings can also be explored in a web interactive (Rob Griffin, Ruy Teixeira, and William H. Frey). Use the interactive guide of the 50 states below to see how states are changing by demographics like race, age, marital status, education, and voting eligibility.