As the U.S. population is forecast to age rapidly during the next few decades, a central public policy challenge is how to address the needs of a growing pool of older Americans who cannot fully care for themselves. Already, one in five U.S. residents over age 65 is unable to carry out at least one of their “Activities of Daily Living,” such as bathing, dressing, and toileting.1 For people older than 85, the population’s fastest-growing age group, that ratio is nearly two in five.2 This escalating need for help as the population ages will lead to a large increase in the demand for what are known as Long-term Services and Supports (LTSS).
The United States is ill-prepared to meet this demand. The rapid aging of America means that the availability of family members and friends to care for impaired older adults is declining. Yet seven in 10 individuals who reach the age of 65 will, at some point, have a significant need for long-term services and supports.3 Roughly half will need to pay for those services, but the typical cost of home care exceeds the average amounts that older Americans have available to spend on it, putting services out of reach for most middle-income households.4 There is virtually no private sector option: despite many efforts, the market for private long-term care insurance has collapsed. Among public insurance programs, Medicaid covers nursing home costs, but only for those whose incomes are extremely low or who have spent all their assets. Moreover, the quality of nursing homes is often inadequate, and people generally prefer to continue living at home. Medicaid does offer some home and community-based services, but these services are not uniformly available even for the low-income and asset group eligible for Medicaid.5 On top of all these financial hurdles, the nation—especially amid changing immigration policies—faces a massive shortage of workers to provide long-term supports and services.6
We outline an approach to a more dignified path that would provide financial protection for older Americans who develop functional impairments. It would allow them to continue living at home with the resources they need. Specifically, we propose a new home care benefit within Medicare, the federal insurance system for older Americans, as an entitlement for those who require LTSS.
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Acknowledgements and disclosures
The authors thank Gretchen Jacobson, Mollie Gurian, Gopi Shah Goda, and Jason Brown for careful review and comments on earlier drafts of the paper. They also thank Hailey Sobel for excellent fact-checking assistance, and Rasa Siniakovas and Chris Miller for incredible editorial assistance. Finally, they thank previous interns Amaya Allen, Saketh Damera, and Preethi Subbiah for their valuable research assistance throughout this project.
The work was supported by a grant from the Commonwealth Fund.
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Footnotes
- Author’s calculations from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS).
- Author’s calculations from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS).
- Johnson, Richard W. 2019. “What is the lifetime risk of needing and receiving long-term services and supports?” Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation (ASPE). https://aspe.hhs.gov/reports/what-lifetime-risk-needing-receiving-long-term-services-supports-0.
- Johnson, Richard W. 2019. “What is the lifetime risk of needing and receiving long-term services and supports?” Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation (ASPE). https://aspe.hhs.gov/reports/what-lifetime-risk-needing-receiving-long-term-services-supports-0.
- Office of the Inspector General (OIG). 2003. “Nursing home deficiency trends and survey and certification process consistency.” Department of Health and Human Services, Report OEI-02-01-00600. https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GOVPUB-HE-PURL-gpo74797/pdf/GOVPUB-HE-PURL-gpo74797.pdf; Henning-Smith, Carrie, John Mulcahy, Megan Lahr, and Jill Tanem. 2021. “Preferences for long-term care arrangements among rural and urban older adults.” The University of Minnesota Rural Health Research Center. https://rhrc.umn.edu/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Preferences-for-Long-Term-Care_revised-2025_MST.pdf.
- Heiks, Cheryl, and Nicole Sabine. 2022. “Long-term care and skilled nursing facilities.” Delaware Journal of Public Health 8 (5), 144–149. https://doi.org/10.32481/djph.2022.12.032; Butcher, Kirsten F., Kelsey Moran, and Tara Watson. 2022. “The role of immigrants in the market for elder care.” The Brookings Institution. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-role-of-immigrants-in-the-market-for-elder-care/.
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