Iran

The question with this administration is, what will Trump see as an acceptable return for this waiver [granted to India for its trade with Russia and Iran]? Will he demand a transaction in return, some give on the trade side or a big defence deal for the US as well? Russia and Iran are sticking points, but the fact that the Trump administration is dealing with these privately is a sign of how much the relationship has changed. [Mr Trump] usually doesn’t give out freebies.

Power abhors a vacuum, and in the absence of strong U.S. leadership on Syria, Russia and Iran have been more than happy to move in. It's a measure of just how much they've come to dominate the conflict that they'll be the only major foreign powers at the summit. The White House has largely washed its hands of Syria. But with Iran entrenched in Damascus, and the Islamic State biding its time in the far countryside, it's likely only a matter of time before our hands are dirtied again. When that happens we'll likely look at these negotiations as a lost opportunity.

The main takeaway from Facebook's announcement is not just that Russia-style meddling is exportable, but that it's inevitable. If Moscow authored the playbook, Tehran read it word for word, and they won't be the only country to do so. Spreading disinformation on Facebook is so easy and effective that we need to assume every foreign adversary will now do it.

Sanctions relief may not have lifted the Iranian economy as a whole, but it has lifted the fortunes of Iranian elites. Zarif may frame sanctions in terms of the harm it’s doing to Iran overall, but he’s really concerned about the checkbooks of the political, financial and military elite that the regime in Tehran depends on for support and legitimacy.

The Iranians have a more complex political environment than North Korea. It’s relatively easy for Kim Jong-un to turn on a dime and take advantage of an opportunity; it’s much harder for them to turn on a dime.

Iran, Ms. Maloney noted, reacted relatively calmly to Mr. Trump’s tweet. The country’s leaders, she said, believe that the president is trying to bait them to breach the nuclear deal, which they do not want to do. But his threats are rattling the Iranians, who worry that Mr. Trump’s aides might goad him into a confrontation.

“This is moving quickly,” she said, “and the president has an establishment around him that seems eager for some kind of dust-up with Iran.”