Global Trade

For solar, a trade war is going to play out differently than other industries. Unlike in other industries where you would see a lot of trade move around, I think [solar] companies will suck it up and pay the tariffs. Gross explains that China’s growth is driven by the country’s own solar manufacturing, climbing energy needs, ambitious plans addressing climate change, and pollution problems. China has a growing power demand to serve. China also has horrendous local air pollution problems. I don’t want to belittle their climate commitment, but it’s easier for them to build up their renewable energy industry when they are also helping with a more tangible problem.

There is certainly scope to pursue China through the WTO and there is a lot the U.S. could be doing that we haven’t done. But the business community remains very nervous about wide-ranging tariffs.

When you look at the Trump trade policy, there’s a clear pattern that we’ve seen, which is very aggressive, very dramatic rhetoric in the announcement, and then when it comes time to actually implement the policy, it’s much more toned down and much more in line with historical U.S. trade enforcement policy.