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Toward a Containment Strategy for Smallpox Bioterror: An Individual-Based Computational Approach

Derek Cummings, Donald S. Burke, Joshua M. Epstein, Ramesh M. Singa, and Shubha Chakravarty

Abstract

An individual-based computational model of smallpox epidemics in a two-town county is presented and used to develop strategies for bioterror containment. A powerful and feasible combination of preemptive and reactive vaccination and isolation strategies is developed which achieves epidemic quenching while minimizing risks of adverse side effects. Calibration of the model to historical data is described. Various model extensions and applications to other public health problems are noted.

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