Three decades ago, in his acceptance speech to the 1980 Republican Convention, Ronald Reagan quoted the famous words of Thomas Paine: “We have it in our power to begin the world over again.” Reagan believed that he was running for office at a time of unusual plasticity, when long-settled arrangements–at home and abroad–could be fundamentally changed. And to the astonishment of skeptics, he turned out to be right.
This revolutionary premise is one of the silken threads connecting the presidencies of Reagan and Barack Obama. It is no accident that Obama chose to quote Paine in his inaugural address. Nor is it an accident that the explicit theme of today’s Cairo speech was “A New Beginning.”
As President Obama moved into his peroration, he declared,
I know there are many, Muslim and non-Muslim, who question whether we can forge this new beginning. Some are eager to stoke the flames of division and to stand in the way of progress. Some suggest that it isn’t worth the effort, that we are fated to disagree and civilizations are doomed to clash.
Many more are simply skeptical that real change can occur. There is so much fear, so much mistrust that has built up over the years. But if we choose to bound by the past, we will never move forward. And I want to particularly say this to young people of every faith in every country: You more than anyone have the ability to reimagine this world, to remake this world.
And in his conclusion, he returned once more to this theme: “We have the power to make the world we seek, but only if we have the courage to make a new beginning.”
Falling apart? The politics of New START and strategic modernization
Sentiment inside the Beltway has turned sharply against China. There are many issues where the two parties sound more or less the same. Trump and others in the administration seem heavily invested in a ‘get very tough with China’ stance. It’s possible that some Democrats might argue that a decoupling strategy borders on lunacy. But if Trump believes this will play well with his core constituencies as his reelection campaign moves into high gear, he will probably decide to stick with it, if the costs and the collateral damage seem manageable. But that’s a very big if, especially if the downsides of a protracted trade war for both American consumers and for American firms become increasingly apparent.
Over the arc of his presidency, Trump has shed himself of cabinet secretaries he doesn’t trust and surrounded himself with loyalists. That will continue and escalate. But the big problem is, he doesn’t know where he’s going.