Conventional Force Reductions

A Dynamic Assessment

Joshua M. Epstein
Release Date: April 24, 1990

With the opening of the Berlin Wall and the emergence of democracy in Eastern Europe, therea re widespread pressures-including the domestic deficit-for major conventional force reductions in Europe.

Using a dynamic model of warfare he has developed, Joshua M. Epstein analyzes the current balance and demonstrates that NATO’s security would progressively improve with the implementation of the Warsaw Treaty Organization’s unilateral reductions, the Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) agreement, and a CFE II agreement under which NATO and the WTO would reduce forces to equal levels 50 percent below the levels specified in CFE I. Epstein argues that the improvement under such a CFE II agreement would be sufficient to permit the United States to make further, unilateral, reductions without endangering NATO’s security.