Shadi Hamid
The Middle East and the new US administration
For the Saudis, the calculus is clear. They have to adapt to a new world ... and present themselves in a more positive light ahead of Biden taking office
It seemed early on that close American allies like Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E would be on the wrong side of this, as well as Israel — countries that were generally very reticent about democratic change in the Middle East. But there was quite a shift where, over time, the big winners, at least for now, from the aftermath of the Arab Spring are precisely those countries... One of the lessons of the Arab Spring unfortunately is that repression works. That the wall of fear can be rebuilt.
[Whether on Israel, Iran or a host of other issues] it’s not possible to go back to the way things once were. That would require altering some of what happened the past few years... [But having an experienced team full of] traditional foreign policy thinkers [could lead the administration to fall into familiar traps if they] apply traditional ideas to a changed world... In the past there was at least some bipartisan consensus on major foreign policy, and a group of elder statesmen that tended to be less partisan. That is no longer the case on the Republican side. [The principle that] America has this moral leadership role to play in the world [is] just not where the heart of the Republican Party is.
