In recent months, President Donald Trump has threatened, announced, enacted, and retracted numerous, consequential trade and tariff policy changes. The developments since he took office are well-documented by the Peterson Institute for International Economics. The resulting unprecedented trade policy uncertainty, including intra-day changes in tariffs, has made planning difficult for investors and businesses. Indeed, President Trump’s approach to tariffs created uncertainty for businesses even before he took office again. As Wendy Edelberg and Maurice Obstfeld warned in October 2024, in response to the threat of very high and very broad tariffs, “chaos would erupt in global supply chains as U.S. importers struggled to avoid the impacts of tariffs.” In attempts to avoid the impact of future potential tariffs, businesses change their behavior. That means that a tariff threat can have economic effects, even if the tariff is ultimately never enacted. Such anticipatory effects were likely the reason that imports soared in January 2025, as businesses hoarded imported inventory before potential policy changes were enacted.

To track how international trade with the United States is changing in response to President Trump’s tariff policy, The Hamilton Project has produced a trade tracker comprised of four interactive figures showing:

• Total merchandise trade by industry and country;
• Calculated duties on merchandise imports by industry and country;
• Merchandise trade price inflation by industry and country; and,
• Total merchandise trade by principal end-use (in real and nominal dollars).

The data will be updated monthly. Updates to figures 1, 2, and 4 will follow the International Trade in Goods and Services (FT-900) release. Figure 4 also includes data from the Advance Economic Indicators, which follows a different release schedule. Figure 3 will be updated when the BLS Export/Import Price Index is released. The tools make few adjustments to the federally collected data; we calculate year-over-year percent changes and the trade partner share of total for all countries. These data are downloadable and can be used for secondary analysis.

For figures 1 and 2, we present a limited set of trade partners available from the U.S. Census Bureau’s international trade data and show only NAICS level 3 aggregations and above. For all figures, we make data available for 2018 onwards.

To navigate between figures, select the relevant drop-down arrow on the right-hand side of the interactive.

Figure 1. Total merchandise trade by industry and country

Figure 1 tracks the total merchandise trade with the United States, i.e., the value of exports from the U.S. and imports by the U.S. in billions of nominal U.S. dollars. Users can select industries, trade partners, either imports or exports, and the type of time series (value, year-over-year change, share of total for all countries).

One example of changes in business behavior in anticipation of tariffs can be seen after selecting the industry Primary Metal Manufacturing for all countries: There was a significant surge in imports in January 2025 to $43.7 billion, a four-and-a-half fold increase from the prior January ($9.5 billion).

Figure 2. Calculated duties on merchandise imports by industry and country

Figure 2 tracks calculated duties on merchandise imports. The calculated duty is the dutiable value of imports multiplied by the applicable duty rate, including tariff rates from the Harmonized Tariff Schedule. Users can select industries, trade partners, the time-series type, and the time period.

The impact of tariff policy changes on calculated duties is illustrated through the selection of Primary Metal Manufacturing (industry) and Canada (trade partner). The significant jump in the data reflects the first Trump administration’s June 2018 import tariffs of 25 percent on Canadian steel products and 10 percent on Canadian aluminum products. Canada announced retaliatory tariffs in response. Both the United States and Canada lifted their tariffs in May 2019. The data tool shows a change from a negligible amount in calculated duties before the policy change to $157 million in June 2018. After the tariffs were lifted in May 2019, the value of duties returned to the original value.

Figure 3. Merchandise trade price inflation by industry and country

Figure 3 shows the year-over-year percent change in the import and export price indexes (MXP) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The MXP present (non-seasonally adjusted) changes in the prices of nonmilitary goods traded between the U.S. and the rest of the world. Works of art and selected special miscellaneous imports and exports are excluded. Import prices are based on U.S. dollar prices paid by the U.S. importer. The transaction prices are generally either at the foreign port or the U.S. port and exclude import duties.

Only a more limited set of industries and trade partners are available for this dataset. A total price index for all trade partners is not available.

For example, import price inflation for Primary Metal Manufacturing (industry) from Mexico, Canada, and the European Union (trade partner) rose in recent months, likely pushed up by the strong demand in anticipation of any tariffs that might be enacted.

Figure 4. Total merchandise trade by principal end-use (in real and nominal dollars)

Figure 4 tracks total merchandise trade by principal end-use (e.g., automotives or industrial supplies) in either real (chained-2017) or nominal dollars. Country-specific disaggregation is not available for these data. For the nominal and seasonally adjusted series, early data from the Advance Economic Indicators report are available and shown as a dotted line. 

By selecting industrial supplies and automotive principal end-use categories, users can observe different business behavior in anticipation of tariffs. For example, unlike industrial supplies, automotive imports did not experience an increase in January 2025.

FAQ:

Which figures/datasets are seasonally adjusted or nominal?

Figures 1, 2, and 3 are on a nominal non-seasonally adjusted basis. Figure 4 is seasonally adjusted and available in both real and nominal terms.

How are goods on a U.S. Census basis different from a balance of payments (BOP) basis?

As per the U.S. Census Bureau explanation, “goods on a Census basis are adjusted by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis to goods on a BOP basis to bring the data in line with the concepts and definitions used to prepare the international and national accounts. Broadly, the adjustments include changes in ownership that occur without goods passing into or out of the customs territory of the United States. These adjustments are necessary to supplement coverage of the Census basis data, to eliminate duplication of transactions recorded elsewhere in the international accounts, and to value transactions according to a standard definition.”

The trade tracker presents trade data on a Census basis for figures 1, 2, and 4.

What is calculated duty?

Calculated duty is the dutiable value of imports times the applicable duty rate. The dutiable value represents the percentage of the Customs value of foreign merchandise imported into the United States that is subject to a duty.

The U.S. Census Bureau uses applicable duty rate(s) from the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States Annotated for Statistical Reporting Purposes (HTSUSA). Please note that the calculated duty may over- or understate the amount of duty paid, based on duty-free or special rates, and therefore should be used cautiously. Duty-free consideration for goods returned after processing and assembly abroad may lead to an overstatement of calculated duties, while special or varied rates may lead to an understatement.

What is the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS)?

The NAICS uses a production-oriented or supply-based framework, grouping establishments by similar economic activities for goods or services. It employs a six-digit coding system: The first two digits indicate the general activity category, the third marks the sub-sector, the fourth the industry group, the fifth the NAICS industry, and the sixth the national industry.

The tracker presents NAICS categories disaggregated at levels two and three. The top-level categories have the prefix “(Total)” and represent the sum of each respective NAICS level three subcategory. Users interested in further disaggregation can find the full data at the U.S. Census Bureau’s International Trade API.

How does the U.S. Census Bureau generate NAICs classified trade data?

As per the U.S. Census Bureau, the statistics are initially collected and compiled in terms of approximately 8,000 commodity classifications in Schedule B, Statistical Classification of Domestic and Foreign Commodities Exported from the United States for exports and the approximately 14,000 classifications in the HTSUSA for imports. The HTSUSA and Schedule B classifications are rearranged and summarized into the NAICS system.

Where can I find a glossary of terms?

Users can find a glossary of U.S. Census international trade related terms here.

Where can I find a list of the area groupings (e.g., ASEAN, etc.)?

Users can find more information about the area groupings here.

This tool was developed by Wendy Edelberg and Riki Matsumoto. They thank Robin Brooks and Lauren Bauer for insightful feedback; Noadia Steinmetz-Silber, Eileen Powell, and Asha Patt for excellent research assistance; and Marie Wilken for invaluable support.

This tool is a work in progress. Please contact [email protected] if you have questions or suggestions.