The only tax pledge worth making: No more pledges

With the 2025 elections now behind us, attention is quickly shifting to next year’s political contests. As 2026 hopefuls throw their hats into the ring for seats across the country, introducing themselves to voters and staking out their policy platforms, “pocketbook” issues—including taxes—remain front and center.

As part of their pitch to the electorate, politicians of both parties often take pledges not to raise taxes for some or all taxpayers. These promises can deliver short-term political rewards and have long been used to signal conviction. But after decades of persistent budget deficits, federal debt has grown to almost record levels and is projected to rise much further.

Solving the nation’s fiscal challenges will require policymakers to be flexible, pragmatic, and willing to consider every option. So, as the nation faces a daunting fiscal problem, “conviction” should mean the courage to promise nothing. The only tax pledge worth making today is to make no further pledges.

The modern pledge era began in the 1980s with the “No New Taxes” pledge—formally the Taxpayer Protection Pledge—which was eventually signed by more than 80% of Republicans in Congress. It is a striking declaration: It assumes no future circumstances can ever justify higher income tax rates and that any deficit problem should be solved solely through spending cuts.

That premise defies both logic and history. The U.S. has raised taxes when necessary to fund major national priorities, and every serious budget commission has endorsed a mix of spending cuts and new revenue. And the public consistently favors this balanced approach. Even former President Ronald Reagan, the champion of modern tax-cut politics, raised taxes several times when fiscal realities demanded it.

Most importantly today, the tax pledge leaves necessary fiscal negotiations all but impossible. If one side refuses even to consider raising taxes, how can the other be expected to negotiate on spending cuts?

The pledge is also misleading. It fixates on taxes since no one enjoys paying them, but ignores that many of the same lawmakers who signed it also supported major spending increases. Its contradictions have been criticized not only by the left, but also by conservatives. Glenn Hubbard, chair of President George W. Bush’s Council of Economic Advisers, and Tim Kane once wrote jointly that “what is left in the hardened anti-tax stance of the Republicans is not a defense of limited government but simply low taxes alongside rising debt.”

As Republicans made tax pledges a campaign staple, Democrats followed. Former President Barack Obama promised not to raise taxes on households earning less than $250,000, and former President Joe Biden raised that threshold to $400,000, a pledge maintained by Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris.

At first glance, these income-related pledges may seem more reasonable than blanket pledges never to raise taxes. But they also create serious problems.

By carving out much of the tax base, these pledges make it far harder to raise revenue. A recent Tax Policy Center analysis found that an across-the-board 10% increase in individual income tax rates would raise more than $200 billion a year, but exempting households below $400,000 would cut that yield by two-thirds. The drop is so steep because the exemption shields not only those below the threshold but also the first $400,000 of higher earners’ income.

Income-based pledges also complicate tax design, forcing policymakers to create separate rules for households above and below the threshold. The result is added complexity and fewer options for broad, efficient reforms, such as a carbon tax or value-added tax.

Avoiding hard choices has pushed the nation to the brink of a fiscal reckoning. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act passed this summer added several trillion dollars in tax cuts over the next decade—the largest tax reduction in modern history. With debt rising and both parties acknowledging the need for a sustainable budget, clinging to tax pledges is not fiscal discipline; it’s fiscal denial. Every promise that restricts tax policy or binds future policymakers deepens the gap between what Americans expect from their government and what the nation can afford.

As a new political cycle begins, party leaders have a brief chance to break this habit. For the first time in decades, neither side has yet renewed its tax pledges. That pause offers a rare moment to put good policy ahead of good politics. Lasting fiscal reform will be possible only when policymakers stop binding themselves with pledges.