China is in a race between its slowing down economic growth and accelerating population aging. Based on macro data from national accounts and micro data from national household surveys, this research applies the National Transfer Account framework to examine recent changes in income and consumption at both the aggregate and individual levels and project the effect of population aging on economic profiles.
The findings show that recent rapid economic growth has resulted in a sizable lifecycle surplus, with labor income far exceeding consumption. With expected increases in consumption, as shown in the historical experience of Taiwan, and with accelerating population aging, however, this surplus is expected to be erased before 2035. China’s three-decade long economic boom has led to an age of abundance, but that era will most likely to end in front of the eyes of the current young generation.
[On the inter-Korean talks] It remains to be seen if the more civil atmosphere prior to the Olympics can address the much deeper divide over major substantive issues - in particular, North Korea's nuclear and missile development (which Pyongyang insists is none of Seoul's business) and the almost certain North Korean demands in any future discussions to weaken or dismantle outright the workings of the U.S.-ROK alliance. The critical issue here is whether the ROK is prepared to say 'no' to the inevitable demands from the DPRK, despite the Moon administration's clear desire to improve inter-Korean relations.