A pro-democracy protester clashes with police during an anti-China protest outside the venue where the flag-raising ceremony for China's national day will be held in Hong Kong (REUTERS/Tyrone Siu).
Black Swans: The Dangers We Could Miss
February 20, 2014,
Black swans, or highly unlikely events with great impact, will continue to be a challenge for both intelligence practitioners and policy-makers alike, explains John McLaughlin. Scenarios, such as a large-scale civil unrest in China, dissolving borders in the Middle East, a collapse of the North Korean regime or détente with Iran are unlikely, yet would yield great consequences, argues McLaughlin.