A pro-democracy protester clashes with police during an anti-China protest outside the venue where the flag-raising ceremony for China's national day will be held in Hong Kong (REUTERS/Tyrone Siu).

Opinion

Black Swans: The Dangers We Could Miss

February 20, 2014, John McLaughlin

Black swans, or highly unlikely events with great impact, will continue to be a challenge for both intelligence practitioners and policy-makers alike, explains John McLaughlin. Scenarios, such as a large-scale civil unrest in China, dissolving borders in the Middle East, a collapse of the North Korean regime or détente with Iran are unlikely, yet would yield great consequences, argues McLaughlin.

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