Perils of prediction: Why it’s so hard to guess the fallout of the Saudi-Iran split
January 5, 2016,
It is the typical analytic tendency to predict that tomorrow will be essentially the same as yesterday and today. But that is also why it is often difficult for even the best analysts to recognize—let alone predict—discontinuous change. Ken Pollack writes that he fears that the Middle East has entered a period where major, discontinuous change has become far more possible, even probable.