A year ago, many hoped that the November G-20 Leaders’ Summit in Cannes would be an opportunity to state that the worst was over and that the world economy was on a solid growth path again. Leaders were expected to turn to long run issues to implement their vision of “strong, sustainable and balanced” global growth. In April, finance ministers already started a discussion of how to monitor key structural variables as a backdrop to a discussion on rebalancing global growth. Continue Reading ›
The Interdependence of Macroeconomic Policies and Structural Reforms
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Homi Kharas
Senior Fellow and Deputy Director
Global Economy and Development, Development Assistance and Governance Initiative
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Kemal Derviş
Vice President and Director
Global Economy and Development
Argentina's 2001 Economic and Financial Crisis: Lessons for Europe
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Miguel Kiguel
Former Under Secretary of Finance and Chief Advisor to the Minister of the Economy, Argentina; Former President, Banco Hipotecario; Director, Econviews; Professor, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella
Can Asia Keep Growing in the Midst of Global Economic Turmoil?
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Peter Drysdale
Emeritus Professor of Economics, Crawford School of Economics and Government, Australian National University; Head of the East Asian Bureau of Economic Research; Co-editor, East Asia Forum
Brazil in the Current Enviroment: Will the Tropical Social Democracy Sustain the Momentum
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Claudio R. Frischtak
President, Inter.B Consulting and Country Director, International Growth Center
Responding to Global Economic Challenges: A View from China
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Qiao Yu
Professor of Economics, School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing
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Lan Xue
Professor and Dean, School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing
Wanted: A Strong and Better G-20 For the Global Economy
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Jean Pisani-Ferry
Director, Bruegel
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Ignazio Angeloni
Director, Centre d’Etudes Prospectives et d’Informations Internationales
Structural Policies for Sustainable Growth
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Thomas Fues
Head of Training Department and Senior Fellow, German Development Institute
Macroeconomic Policy and Structural Reform: The Indian Case
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Suman Bery
Country Director, International Growth Centre, New Delhi and Member, Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council
The Risk of Prolonged Stagnation and the Need for International Concerted Action
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Paolo Guerrieri
Professor of Economics, University of Rome Sapienza; Professor, College of Europe, Bruges
A Needed G-20 Consensus: A New Structural Reform Agenda for Developing Countries
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Shinji Asanuma
Visiting Professor, School of International and Public Policy, Hitotsubashi University, Tokyo
A Case for Macroeconomic Expansion with Structural Reform
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Wonhyuk Lim
Director of Development Research, Korea Development Institute (KDI)
Mexico - Austerity Measures Without Growth? Greece, Ireland, and Latin America
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Guillermo Ortiz
Chairman, Grupo Financiero Banorte; Former Governor, Bank of Mexico; Former Secretary of Finance and Public Credit, Mexico; Former Executive Director of the International Monetary Fund
The Fiscal Crisis as an Opportunity for Structural Reforms
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Aleh Tsyvinski
Professor of Economics, Yale University
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Sergei Guriev
Professor of Economics and Rector, New Economic School, Moscow
South Africa; New Opportunities for Structural Policies and Growth
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Cyrus Rustomjee
Director, Economic Affairs Division, Commonwealth Secretariat
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Analisa Bala
Policy Advisor, G-24
The Political Dimension of Global Economic Challenges: Lessons from Turkey
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E. Fuat Keyman
Professor and Director, Istanbul Policy Center, Sabanci University
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Izak Atiyas
Professor, Sabanci University
A Structural Agenda for the United States
Today, it is clear that a sense of urgency over the short-term prospects of the global economy has returned. In the United States, growth is weak and the fraction of the population employed is at historical lows. The eurozone is facing an existential threat and even the German growth engine is slowing, perhaps even stalling. Japan cannot get out of a now two-decade long stagnation. And the widespread confidence prevailing in emerging markets is giving way to greater anxiety as global trade falters again and advanced country banks are recalling liquidity to their home bases. As has always been the case when anxiety mounts, there is a flight into the U.S. dollar despite America’s fiscal problems. The emerging market country currencies that are basically floating have depreciated sharply against the dollar. Brazil, a country that had been very worried about the appreciation of the real, has intervened to slow down a sudden marked depreciation. Turkey’s central bank is selling reserves. Equity markets have been down worldwide although there is a great deal of volatility and there have been rallies.
In 2009, the G-20 came together with a coherent package of macroeconomic measures to deal with the crisis. Today, the situation is quite different. First, in some countries, while a considerable amount of fiscal ammunition has been spent, the current slowdown in growth is shifting the balance of opinion against immediate fiscal consolidation. An increasing number of observers are now of the opinion that careful support to the recovery is more important than immediate fiscal retrenchment in those economies that have still preserved some fiscal space, including the U.S. Nonetheless, longerterm debt dynamics are very worrisome so there appears to be a serious fiscal conundrum. Second, today’s global economy seems to have entered a new phase characterized by heightened uncertainty over long-term growth prospects. In the current environment, there is greater talk of the need to implement structural reforms to provide an impetus to growth and to link macroeconomic policies, especially fiscal policy, with strategies to address structural weaknesses and to restore long-term business and consumer confidence rather than to discuss macroeconomics purely in terms of shortterm aggregate demand. Monetary and aggregate fiscal policy have reached their limits as countries have lost fiscal space and as the conundrum caused by the need for short-term support to the recovery, and the need for long-term consolidation remains unresolved. Therefore, it is the interaction between macroeconomic policy and structural reforms that is the topic of the essays in this volume.