This file describes the replication materials for 

"The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009" by J.G. Fernald, R.E. Hall, J.H. Stock, and M.W. Watson

Final Draft: May 2, 2017.

Preliminary Calculations:
factor_compute_save.m:  This computes factors for DFM forecasts

Figure 1: (a) matlab\Figure_1a.m
Figure 1: (b) matlab\Figure_1b.m
Figure 2: (a) and (b) 'figures_2_and_7 (SPF)\Figure2_SPF_GDP_UE.xlsx'
Figure 3: matlab\Table_3_Figures_3_4_5.m
Figure 4: matlab\Table_3_Figures_3_4_5.m
Figure 5: matlab\Table_3_Figures_3_4_5.m
Figure 6: matlab\Table_4_Figure_6.m, Figure_6_pt2.m, and Figure_6_pt3.m
Figure 7: (a) and (b) 'figures_2_and_7 (SPF)\Figure7_SPFproductivity.xlsx.xlsx'
Figure 8: matlab\Figure_8.m
Figure 9: matlab\Figure_9.m
Figure 10: JF or RH
Figure 11: JS or RH
Figure 12: RH
Figure 13: RH


Table 1: matlab\dfm_data_appendix.m
Table 2: matlab\Table_2.m (except final column which is computed in Table_4_Figure_6.m)
Table 3: matlab\Table_3_Figures_3_4_5.m
Table 4: matlab\Table_4_Figure_6.m
Table 5: matlab\Table_5.m
Table 6: matlab\Table_6_panel_a.m and Table_6_panel_b.m (note these take some time to run because of the search over break dates). The median unbiased estimate of sigma_delta_mu and its confidence interval come from inverting the test statistic using the tables in Stock and Watson (JASA, 1998).
Table 7: tables_7_8 (industry and regdata)\table_7_BLS_MFP_data_for_BPEA_2017_05.m
Table 8: stata\Reg_panel.do (see tables_7_8 (industry and regdata) for construction of dataset
Table 9: RH


Supplementary Appendix:
Figure A-1: matlab\Figure_9.m
Figure A-2: matlab\Table_3_Figures_3_4_5.m
Figure A-3: matlab\Table_4_Figure_6.m, Figure_6_pt2.m, and Figure_6_pt3.m
Table A.1:  matlab\dfm_data_appendix.m
Table A.2:  matlab\Table_A2_1.m, Table_A2_2.m,Table_A2_3.m,Table_A2_4.m,Table_A2_1_pt2.m, Table_A2_2_pt2.m,Table_A2_3_pt2.m,Table_A2_4_pt2.m

