$\left(UR_t - UR_{t-1}\right)*4$ &  \bf 0.00 &  &  &  \bf -0.33 &  &  &  \bf 0.96 & 0.51 \\  & (0.07) &  &  & (0.08) &  &  & (0.17) &  \\  &  &  \bf 0.04 &  &  &  \bf -0.32 &  &  \bf 0.87 & 0.40 \\  &  & (0.07) &  &  & (0.08) &  & (0.21) &  \\  &  &  &  \bf 0.00 &  &  &  \bf -0.20 &  \bf 0.65 & 0.20 \\  &  &  & (0.10) &  &  & (0.12) & (0.23) &  \\  \hline $\left(E_t^{household}/E_{t-1}^{household}\right)^4$ &  \bf 0.12 &  &  &  \bf 0.30 &  &  &  \bf 0.05 & 0.40 \\  & (0.11) &  &  & (0.11) &  &  & (0.27) &  \\  &  &  \bf -0.05 &  &  &  \bf 0.43 &  &  \bf 0.09 & 0.38 \\  &  & (0.09) &  &  & (0.12) &  & (0.35) &  \\  &  &  &  \bf -0.17 &  &  &  \bf 0.41 &  \bf 0.48 & 0.16 \\  &  &  & (0.14) &  &  & (0.15) & (0.41) &  \\  \hline $ISM_t^{manuf.}$ &  \bf 0.15 &  &  &  \bf 1.31 &  &  &  \bf 47.61 & 0.49 \\  & (0.39) &  &  & (0.40) &  &  & (0.74) &  \\  &  &  \bf 0.42 &  &  &  \bf 0.92 &  &  \bf 47.88 & 0.41 \\  &  & (0.37) &  &  & (0.36) &  & (0.71) &  \\  &  &  &  \bf 0.17 &  &  &  \bf 0.60 &  \bf 49.42 & 0.13 \\  &  &  & (0.43) &  &  & (0.42) & (0.83) &  \\  \hline $log\left(SP500_t - SP500_{t-4}\right)/4$ &  \bf -0.13 &  &  &  \bf 0.78 &  &  &  \bf 0.22 & 0.19 \\  & (0.29) &  &  & (0.34) &  &  & (1.04) &  \\  \hline $r_{t-8}^{Treas(10yr)} - r_{t-8}^{Treas(2yr)}$ &  \bf -0.14 &  &  &  \bf 0.20 &  &  &  \bf 0.57 & 0.07 \\  & (0.06) &  &  & (0.07) &  &  & (0.16) &  \\  \hline $\widehat{\Delta GDP(E)_{t,t}}$, SPF forecast &  \bf 0.09 &  &  &  \bf 0.39 &  &  &  \bf 0.81 & 0.49 \\ current quarter & (0.11) &  &  & (0.11) &  &  & (0.28) &  \\ $\widehat{\Delta GDP(E)_{t,t-1}}$, SPF forecast &  \bf 0.05 &  &  &  \bf 0.19 &  &  &  \bf 1.72 & 0.18 \\ 1 quarter ahead & (0.06) &  &  & (0.08) &  &  & (0.29) &  \\ $\widehat{\Delta GDP(E)_{t,t-2}}$, SPF forecast &  \bf 0.08 &  &  &  \bf 0.06 &  &  &  \bf 2.20 & 0.10 \\ 2 quarters ahead & (0.06) &  &  & (0.08) &  &  & (0.32) &  \\ 
