 $log(SP500_t/SP500_{t-1})$  &  \bf 0.18 &  \bf 0.19 &  \bf 5.58 &  \bf 4.64 & 0.30 \\  &  &  & (2.32) & (1.44) &  \\  $log(SP500_{t-1}/SP500_{t-2})$  &  \bf 0.27 &  \bf 0.13 &  \bf 6.50 &  \bf 3.94 & 0.00 \\  &  &  & (1.51) & (1.43) &  \\  $r_{t}^{HY corporate} - r_{t}^{Treas.(7yr)}$  &  \bf 0.58 &  \bf 0.39 &  \bf -0.74 &  \bf -0.50 & 0.00 \\  &  &  & (0.10) & (0.11) &  \\  $r_{t-1}^{HY corporate} - r_{t-1}^{Treas.(7yr)}$  &  \bf 0.53 &  \bf 0.37 &  \bf -0.73 &  \bf -0.50 & 0.00 \\  &  &  & (0.13) & (0.15) &  \\  $r_{t-2}^{Treas.(10yr)} - r_{t-2}^{Treas.(2yr)}$  &  \bf 0.07 &  \bf -0.00 &  \bf 0.68 &  \bf 0.34 & 0.00 \\  &  &  & (0.43) & (0.39) &  \\  $U_{t} - U_{t-1}$  &  \bf 0.64 &  \bf 0.49 &  \bf -2.08 &  \bf -1.48 & 0.00 \\  &  &  & (0.29) & (0.33) &  \\  $E_{t}^{household}/E_{t-1}^{household}$  &  \bf 0.62 &  \bf 0.59 &  \bf 1.30 &  \bf 1.02 & 0.03 \\  &  &  & (0.18) & (0.20) &  \\  $ISM_t^{manuf.}$  &  \bf 0.40 &  \bf 0.30 &  \bf 0.25 &  \bf 0.18 & 0.00 \\  &  &  & (0.05) & (0.05) &  \\ 
