U.S. Foreign Policy

It seemed early on that close American allies like Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E would be on the wrong side of this, as well as Israel — countries that were generally very reticent about democratic change in the Middle East. But there was quite a shift where, over time, the big winners, at least for now, from the aftermath of the Arab Spring are precisely those countries... One of the lessons of the Arab Spring unfortunately is that repression works. That the wall of fear can be rebuilt.

I think it is highly unlikely [that the Biden Administration will release a declassified report on Khashoggi's murder]. To protect sources and methods it would need to be highly redacted. Such a document would not be very satisfying. To do otherwise would be to reduce significantly our ability to monitor activities... The Saudis have only belatedly begun to realise that the good old days are coming to an end. I think they are trying to figure out what to do and are particularly concerned about Biden reviving the Iran nuclear deal, which they are completely opposed to... MBS holds almost all of his meetings in the fantasy city of Neom. Well, there is a reason for that. It is the safest place for him to be in the kingdom and I think it is reflection of his very acute concerns. He has alienated an awful lot of Saudis.

[Whether on Israel, Iran or a host of other issues] it’s not possible to go back to the way things once were. That would require altering some of what happened the past few years... [But having an experienced team full of] traditional foreign policy thinkers [could lead the administration to fall into familiar traps if they] apply traditional ideas to a changed world... In the past there was at least some bipartisan consensus on major foreign policy, and a group of elder statesmen that tended to be less partisan. That is no longer the case on the Republican side. [The principle that] America has this moral leadership role to play in the world [is] just not where the heart of the Republican Party is.