Russia & Eurasia

This regime is more consciously prepared to deal with low oil prices than either the Soviets or the authorities in the 1990s. It’s possible that they are over-extended, but Putin is a strategic planner who has certainly considered life at various price points.

Russia is prepared to fight harder to keep from losing Ukraine than the West is prepared to fight to get it.

As much as I would like to see deeper nuclear reductions, the Russians are unlikely to agree to a new treaty during the remainder of President Obama’s term.