Welcome to the fifth edition of the Trans-Atlantic Scorecard, a quarterly evaluation of U.S.-European relations produced by Brookings’s Center on the United States and Europe (CUSE), as part of the Brookings – Robert Bosch Foundation Transatlantic Initiative. To produce the Scorecard, we poll Brookings scholars and other experts on the present state of U.S. relations with Europe—overall and in the political, security, and economic dimensions—as well as on the state of U.S. relations with five key countries and the European Union itself. We also ask about several major issues in the news. The poll for this edition of the survey was conducted October 8-11, 2019. The experts’ analysis is complemented by a Snapshot of the relationship over the previous three calendar months, including a timeline of significant moments, a tracker of President Trump’s telephone conversations with European leaders, figures presenting data relevant to the relationship, and CUSE Director Thomas Wright’s take on what to watch in the coming months.
Snapshot
Timeline
- July 1
- Iran exceeded limits on its stockpile of low-enriched uranium, violating the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) for the first time since the deal’s signing.
- July 2
- Following protracted negotiations, the European Council proposed a slate of new EU leaders to take office on November 1: German Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen as European Commission president, Belgian Prime Minister Charles Michel as president of the European Council, Spanish Foreign Affairs Minister Josep Borrell as high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, and International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde as president of the European Central Bank.
- July 2
- The United States announced that it was considering imposing tariffs on an additional $4 billion a year worth of EU imports, in addition to a $21 billion a year list announced in April, if the World Trade Organization approves tariffs over European Airbus subsidies.
- July 3
- David Sassoli of Italy’s center-left Democratic Party was elected president of the European Parliament by MEPs.
- July 4
- Off the coast of Gibraltar, U.K. troops and the Gibraltarian police seized an Iranian tanker suspected of carrying oil to Syria. Tehran called the seizure “illegal,” while the British stood by their enforcement of EU sanctions against Syria.
- July 5
- The U.K. Competition and Markets Authority halted Amazon’s $575 million investment into London-based food delivery company Deliveroo by opening an investigation into the investment’s impact on competition.
- July 7
- Iran announced that it would breach the 3.67% uranium enrichment limit set by the JCPOA.
- July 7
- Kyriakos Mitsotakis and his center-right party New Democracy defeated Greek Prime Minister Alex Tsipras and his left-wing Syriza in snap parliamentary elections, winning nearly 40% of the vote to Syriza’s 31.5%.
- July 7
- A series of leaked diplomatic cables and memos revealed that Kim Darroch, the U.K. Ambassador to the United States, had described the Trump administration as “inept” and “uniquely dysfunctional.” President Trump responded on July 8 that “we will no longer deal with” Darroch.
- July 8
- The German government said that it would not deploy ground troops to Syria in the fight against the Islamic State as U.S. troops partially withdraw, despite a U.S. request.
- July 8
- Philippe Étienne presented his credentials to President Trump as French Ambassador to the United States.
- July 9
- U.K. Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn suggested his party would vote “remain” in the event of a second Brexit referendum, writing to party members, “Whoever becomes the new prime minister should have the confidence to put their deal, or no deal, back to the people in a public vote. In those circumstances …. Labour would campaign for remain against either no deal or a Tory deal that does not protect the economy and jobs.”
- July 9
- France and the United Kingdom agreed to deploy additional troops to Syria as U.S. troops partially withdraw.
- July 10
- Ambassador Darroch resigned following President Trump’s criticism as well as a lack of support from Boris Johnson, the favorite to replace Theresa May as Conservative Party leader and U.K. prime minister, in a debate against Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt.
- July 10
- In an emergency International Atomic Energy Agency meeting, U.S. Representative Jackie Wolcott accused Iran of engaging in “brinkmanship” and “nuclear extortion.” Later that day, President Trump tweeted that the United States would increase sanctions against Iran in response to the country’s “total violation” of the deal.
- July 10
- BuzzFeed News published an audio recording apparently featuring Gianluca Savoini, a close ally of Italian Deputy Prime Minister and Interior Minister Matteo Salvini, soliciting illicit funding for their far-right League party from three Russians. Salvini denied knowledge of the meeting. Italian prosecutors opened an investigation into the matter.
- July 11
- The French parliament approved a controversial tax on tech companies, imposing a 3% tax on annual revenues of major firms providing digital services to French consumers.
- July 12
- Turkey began receiving parts of the Russian S-400 air defense system, defying warnings from the United States of the negative impact on NATO and bilateral relations.
- July 15
- EU foreign ministers decided that Iran’s breaches of the JCPOA were reversible and not serious enough to trigger the deal’s dispute mechanism.
- July 15
- The EU decided to reduce its financial assistance to Turkey, break off high-level talks, and suspend negotiations on an aviation deal in response to Turkey’s drilling for gas off Cyprus. The Turkish foreign ministry said the EU’s decisions would not affect Ankara’s activities in the region.
- July 16
- The European Parliament confirmed German Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen as the future president of the European Commission. In a secret ballot, Von der Leyen only received nine more votes than the 374 needed, with Poland’s Euroskeptic ruling party Law and Justice announcing its support for her just before the vote.
- July 16
- French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire stated that France would not change its plans to tax tech companies despite U.S. threats of tariffs and legal action.
- July 17
- Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, the leader of Germany’s Christian Democratic Union party, replaced Ursula von der Leyen as German defense minister.
- July 17
- The European Commission opened an antitrust investigation to assess whether Amazon’s use of independent retailers’ data breaches EU competition rules.
- July 17
- In response to the delivery of S-400 components, the U.S. removed Turkey from the F-35 fighter jet production consortium and canceled Ankara’s planned purchase of 100 F-35s.
- July 19
- Iran seized a British-flagged oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. U.K. Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt described the act as “state piracy” and called for a “European-led maritime protection mission to support safe passage of both crew and cargo in this vital region.”
- July 19
- Chancellor Merkel criticized President Trump telling four congresswomen to “go back” to their countries, saying that his statement “contradicts the strength of America.” Prime Minister May also stated that she “strongly condemned” Trump’s remarks, which she deemed “completely unacceptable.”
- July 22
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s party Servant of the People won an absolute majority in parliamentary elections.
- July 22
- The U.K.’s Liberal Democrats elected Jo Swinson as the party’s new leader. She is the first woman to lead the party.
- July 23
- The U.S. Senate confirmed Mark Esper as Secretary of Defense. The position had been vacant since James Mattis’s exit on January 1, with Patrick Shanahan and then Esper serving as acting secretary.
- July 24
- Boris Johnson became the new U.K. Prime Minister after defeating Foreign Secretary Hunt in the final round of an election to lead the Conservative Party. In a speech, Johnson promised that Britain would leave the European Union by October 31, with or without a deal. He also promised to improve the economy, infrastructure, education, and to restore trust in democracy. Several cabinet ministers, including Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond, resigned in response to Johnson’s election; another 11 were fired by the new prime minister.
- July 24
- Special Counsel Robert Mueller, who led the investigation into Russia’s interference in the 2016 presidential election, whether individuals associated with the Trump campaign coordinated with the Russian government, and President Trump’s actions towards the investigations into these matters, testified before the U.S. House Judiciary and Intelligence Committees.
- July 25
- Ukraine seized a Russian tanker that was allegedly complicit in Russia’s seizure of three Ukrainian vessels and detention of their crews in the Kerch Strait in November 2018. The Russian tanker’s crew was released.
- July 25
- In a phone call, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker told Prime Minister Johnson that the EU would not renegotiate the Brexit deal, and that the current agreement was the “best and only agreement possible.”
- July 25
- President Trump spoke on the phone with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, asking Zelenskiy to investigate former vice president and current presidential candidate Joe Biden and his son Hunter Biden, as well as the roots of the investigation into Trump’s links to Russia. Trump had put a hold on military aid to Ukraine one week prior. The call drew alarm among White House staff and led to an August 12 complaint to Congress by an intelligence community whistleblower. The complaint’s transmission was delayed but would have a major political impact by late September.
- July 25
- President Trump demanded that Sweden release American rapper A$AP Rocky, who had been arrested and charged with assault. The musician was released from custody a week later and was convicted and given a suspended sentence later in August.
- July 27
- Moscow police arrested over 1,300 protesters at a demonstration in response to several opposition politicians being barred from running in Moscow’s city council election.
- July 29
- Prime Minister Johnson’s spokesman suggested that the British leader wouldn’t hold talks with EU leaders until they agreed to scrap the Irish backstop in the Brexit withdrawal deal. Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar refused Johnson’s demand.
- July 30
- French Agriculture Minister Didier Guillaume criticized President Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on French wine in response to France’s recently introduced digital tax. He encouraged dialogue and negotiation instead.
- July 31
- Germany declined the United States’ request to join a U.S.-led naval security mission in the Persian Gulf. German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said that Germany did not want to see a military escalation and disagreed with President Trump’s “maximum pressure” strategy. U.S. Ambassador to Germany Richard Grenell criticized Germany’s refusal. According to French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, France, Britain, and Germany were working on a “mission for monitoring and observing maritime security in the Gulf.”
- July 31
- The Hungarian government responded to criticism it has received for allowing the transit of Russian military vehicles through its airspace, in violation of EU sanctions. A government spokesman said the shipment, which comprised armored patrol vehicles traveling to Serbia as part of a military assistance package, was allowed to travel through Hungarian airspace because the goods were being transported in a civilian plane. Romania had initially blocked the shipment.
- August 2
- The United States withdrew from the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty after accusing Russia of violating the terms of the agreement. The INF Treaty banned ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers. NATO supported the U.S. withdrawal, declaring “Russia bears sole responsibility for the demise of the Treaty.”
- August 2
- The U.K.’s Liberal Democrats won a byelection in Wales, reducing the Conservative Party’s majority to a single Member of Parliament.
- August 6
- U.S. Ambassador to Russia and former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman announced his resignation, effective in October.
- August 6
- President Trump met with British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab in Washington.
- August 7
- The Italian Senate rejected the Five Star Movement’s motion to block the construction of a high-speed rail link between Turin and Lyon. League leader Matteo Salvini subsequently signaled the end of the coalition with the Five Star-League coalition.
- August 16
- Reports revealed that President Trump had asked his advisors if the United States could purchase Greenland, an autonomous territory of the Kingdom of Denmark. Greenland’s foreign affairs ministry tweeted in response, “We’re open for business, not for sale.”
- August 20
- Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte announced his resignation, preempting a vote of no confidence and bringing the Five Star-League populist coalition government to an end after nearly 15 months. An alternative governing coalition between the Five Star Movement and the center-left Democratic Party began to form.
- August 20
- President Trump announced via Twitter that he was cancelling a September trip to Denmark because Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen had said she was not interested in discussing the sale of Greenland. Trump and Frederiksen spoke on the phone two days later.
- August 20
- President Trump met with Romanian President Klaus Iohannis at the White House.
- August 24-26
- President Macron hosted the G-7 Summit in Biarritz. Key issues under discussion included potential U.S.-Iran negotiations, fires in the Amazon rainforest, and trade. President Trump pushed inviting Russia to return to the group, from which it was expelled after occupying Ukrainian territory, but others rejected the suggestion. Macron announced plans for a “Normandy Four” summit between Russia, Ukraine, Germany, and France, aimed at resolving the conflict in eastern Ukraine. Such a summit did not take place in September as intended by Macron, but talks continue and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy announced an agreement towards a settlement on October 1.
- August 28
- Prime Minister Johnson suspended Parliament from September 10 to October 14. The suspension was perceived as a tactic to limit Parliament’s ability to constrain the government on Brexit.
- August 29
- Italian President Sergio Mattarella gave Prime Minister Conte a mandate to form a new government coalition between the Five Star Movement and the Democratic Party.
- August 30
- U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo named Matthew Palmer as Special Representative for the Western Balkans. Palmer will also continue to serve as Deputy Assistant Secretary in the Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs.
- September 1
- U.S. Vice President Mike Pence visited Poland and gave remarks at a commemoration of the 80th anniversary of the outbreak of World War II, after President Trump canceled a state visit to monitor Hurricane Dorian. Pence met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy following the ceremony.
- September 1
- In closely-watched elections in east Germany, the far-right Alternative for Germany gained ground but fell short of winning a state for the first time, coming in second to Chancellor Merkel’s Christian Democrats in Saxony (32.1% to 27.5%) and to the Social Democrats in Brandenburg (26.2% to 23.5%).
- September 2-3
- U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited Brussels and met with incoming EU leaders Ursula von der Leyen, Josep Borrell, and Charles Michel, as well as David Sassoli, the president of the European Parliament.
- September 3
- The U.K. Parliament passed a bill blocking a no-deal Brexit. In response, Prime Minister Johnson expelled 21 Conservative MPs who defied the government to vote in favor of the bill, including eight former ministers, from the party. Johnson had already lost his one-seat governing majority with the defection of one member to the Liberal Democrats earlier in the day.
- September 3
- U.S. Vice President Pence visited Ireland and met with Taoiseach Leo Varadkar as well as Foreign Minister Simon Coveney. Pence was criticized for staying at a Trump resort in Doonbeg, across the country from Dublin on the Atlantic coast.
- September 4
- Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte announced his new cabinet, with Five Star Movement leader Luigi Di Maio as foreign minister.
- September 4
- U.S. Vice President Pence visited Iceland and met with President Guðni Th. Jóhannesson and Prime Minister Katrín Jakobsdóttir.
- September 4-6
- U.S. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper travelled to Stuttgart, Paris, and London.
- September 5
- U.S. Vice President Pence visited the U.K. and met with Prime Minister Johnson. Separately the same day, Prime Minister Johnson publicly stated that he’d “rather be dead in a ditch” than ask the EU for another extension to Brexit.
- September 5
- The U.S. State Department publicly designated Liviu Dragnea, the leader of Romania’s governing Social Democratic Party (PSD), for “significant corruption.” The designation rendered Dragnea, who is currently serving a prison sentence in Romania, ineligible for entry into the United States.
- September 5
- The United States and Poland released a joint declaration on 5G.
- September 9
- The chairs of the U.S. House Committees on Foreign Affairs, Intelligence, and Oversight and Reform wrote to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and to the White House counsel expressing concern that “a growing public record indicates that, for nearly two years, the President and his personal attorney, Rudy Giuliani, appear to have acted outside legitimate law enforcement and diplomatic channels to coerce the Ukrainian government into pursuing two politically-motivated investigations under the guise of anti-corruption activity,” and requesting relevant documents.
- September 10
- President Trump parted ways with John Bolton, his hawkish national security advisor, with conflicting accounts of whether Bolton was fired or resigned.
- September 10
- President-elect of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen announced the proposed members and structure of the next Commission.
- September 10
- President Erdoğan announced a plan to resettle over 1 million Syrian refugees in a “safe zone” in northern Syria, threatening that if the plan does not receive international support Turkey “will have to open the gates” to Europe.
- September 11
- The Trump administration lifted its hold on military aid to Ukraine.
- September 12
- The European Central Bank cut interest rates and approved bond purchases of 20 billion euros a month from November to stimulate the eurozone economy.
- September 14
- A World Trade Organization dispute settlement panel reportedly allowed the United States to impose punitive tariffs on the EU for its subsidies to Airbus, ending a decades-long dispute. The decision was published October 2 and allowed U.S. tariffs of up to $7.5 million annually.
- September 18
- Outgoing European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker addressed the European Parliament in Strasbourg, warning “the risk of a no-deal [Brexit] is very real.” The parliament passed a resolution calling for a third extension to the Brexit deadline.
- September 18
- Robert O’Brien, formerly the special presidential envoy for hostage affairs, was sworn in as President Trump’s fourth national security advisor in 33 months.
- September 18
- U.S. Vice President Mike Pence spoke on the phone with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
- September 23
- Spain’s parliament dissolved, triggering a November 10 election, after months of failed efforts to form a government based on the results of April’s elections.
- September 23
- In a joint statement at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York, Prime Minister Johnson, President Macron, and Chancellor Merkel said “it is clear for us that Iran bears responsibility” for the September 14 attack on oil processing facilities in Saudi Arabia, backing the U.S. assessment. They stressed diplomacy to de-escalate tensions and declared “the time has come for Iran to accept negotiation on a long-term framework for its nuclear programme as well as on issues related to regional security.”
- September 23
- In New York for UNGA, President Trump and Polish President Andrzej Duda signed a “Joint Declaration on Advancing Defense Cooperation” building on an earlier agreement from June 2019 and specifying locations for an increased U.S. military presence in Poland.
- September 24
- The U.K. Supreme Court ruled that Prime Minister Johnson acted unlawfully and abused his executive power in suspending Parliament. Parliament returned the next day.
- September 24
- Following further reporting on the substance of the intelligence community whistleblower’s complaint against President Trump, U.S. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi announced that the House would launch an impeachment inquiry against President Trump.
- September 24
- The General Debate opened at UNGA. President Trump gave a nationalist speech, arguing “The future does not belong to globalists. The future belongs to patriots.” President Macron urged the United States and Iran to resume negotiations.
- September 25
- A memorandum of the July 25 call between President Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy was published. The same day, the two presidents met for the first time in New York and took questions.
- September 26
- The whistleblower’s complaint was published by the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence.
- September 27
- Kurt Volker, the U.S. State Department’s special envoy for Ukraine who was involved in the scandal, resigned ahead of giving testimony to Congressional investigators.
- September 29
- Former Chancellor Sebastian Kurz’s Austrian People’s Party won Austria’s parliamentary elections with 37 percent of the vote. Kurz’s previous government collapsed in May over a scandal involving his far-right coalition partner the Freedom Party, and he will need to a coalition partner to form a new government.
Europe on the line
Tracking President Trump’s reported phone conversations with European leaders.
Between July 1 and September 30, 2019, President Trump spoke on the phone with U.K. Prime Minister Johnson three times (July 26, August 2, August 19), French President Macron twice (August 20, September 5), Danish Prime Minister Fredericksen once (August 22), Swedish Prime Minister Löfven once (July 20), Greek Prime Minister Mitsotakis once (July 9), Russian President Putin once (August 1), and Ukrainian President Zelenskiy once (July 25). He did not speak with Turkish President Erdoğan in that time frame, but they spoke on the phone on October 6 and October 18, 2019. President Trump last spoke on the phone with German Chancellor Merkel on March 22, 2019.
We track Trump’s phone calls with the leaders of France, Germany, Russia, Turkey, and the United Kingdom, whether they have spoken or not, as well as other calls with European leaders of which we are aware. The White House stopped releasing readouts of the president’s calls with foreign leaders in July 2018. If we’ve missed a conversation, please give us a ring. Source: whitehouse.gov, elysee.fr, bundeskanzlerin.de, gov.uk, en.kremlin.ru, tccb.gov.tr/en, press reports.
Figures
A decade since the start of the euro crisis
October 2019 marks the tenth anniversary of the beginning of the eurozone crisis, when George Papandreou took office as Greek prime minister and revealed the true state of the country’s public finances. Following the economic shock of the global financial crisis, the ability of several eurozone member states to repay their sovereign debt was called into question. Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, and Cyprus required external assistance. The lack of fiscal union in the Eurozone hampered the ability for European leaders to respond. While the EU created mechanisms like the European Stability Mechanism in responding to the crisis, many economists have predicted that the eurozone is still not strong enough to withstand the next crisis and argue further reform is needed.
The contours of the crisis are evident from both the GDP growth and ratio of sovereign debt to GDP of key European member states. Eurozone GDP contracted by 4.5% in 2009, and the Greek economy continued to slide until 2011, when its GDP contracted by 9.1% and its sovereign debt reached 172.1% of GDP. The spread of the crisis to larger nations like Spain and Italy, the eurozone’s fourth- and third-largest economies, is evident in 2011 and 2012. In 2012, the eurozone as a whole contracted by 0.9% while Italy contracted by 2.8%. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s July 2012 statement that the bank was “ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro” was widely credited with calming the markets.
Slow economic recovery, however, became evident in 2014 as countries like Ireland, whose debt to GDP ratio had peaked in 2012 at nearly 120%, and Spain, whose debt plateaued at around 100% after a steep ascent, exited their bailout programs. In 2015, the eurozone managed to avoid a threatened exit of Greece with uncertain consequences. Ten years on, eurozone growth has been relatively stable at around 2%, but member states including Greece, Italy, and Portugal, maintain a debt to GDP ratio two to three times that of the Stability and Growth Pact-mandated 60%.
Cohesion funds
On the flip side, EU cohesion funds, a subsection of European regional policy dedicated to member states whose GDP is less than 90% of the EU average, represent a natural extension of the EU’s economic success and are granted in addition to the EU’s normal regional development funding, which goes to all member states. Funded by member state contributions to the EU’s budget, the EU allotted just over €63 billion to promote “harmonious development” and even out disparities in development levels between regions.
Major beneficiaries of cohesion funds include Poland, which was slated to receive €23 billion (36% of all planned cohesion funding) from 2014-2020, Romania, which received nearly €7 billion or (close to 11%), and the Czech Republic and Hungary, which received €6 billion (nearly 10%) each.
What to watch
Center on the United States and Europe Director Thomas Wright lays out events, issues, and potential developments to watch for in the months ahead.
I am delighted to share with you the fifth edition of the Trans-Atlantic Scorecard, a quarterly evaluation of U.S.-European relations produced by Brookings’s Center on the United States and Europe, as part of the Brookings – Robert Bosch Foundation Transatlantic Initiative.
The latest iteration of the scorecard shows a downtick in all four metrics for U.S.-European relations — overall, political, security, and economic. This reflects several negative events, including President Trump’s pressure on Ukraine which has led to the impeachment crisis, the transfer of resources from deterrence in eastern Europe to build the wall along the southern border, and continuing tensions over trade.
The one notable exception is the score for U.S.-U.K. relations, which has improved. This seems to be partly the good rapport between the president and Prime Minister Johnson — although there is little to show for it substantively thus far — and partly a natural bounce back from the low of Trump’s harsh criticism of U.K. Ambassador Sir Kim Darroch. If the prime minister’s deal passes Parliament (and at the moment of writing that remains uncertain), we will soon find out if the U.K. and the U.S. can make swift progress on trade talks.
We will be watching several other things in the months to come.
First, we will be looking at the upcoming NATO leaders summit in London in early December to see if Prime Minister Johnson can persuade President Trump to play a constructive role in the meeting or if President Trump renews his attacks on the alliance.
Second, will the U.S. presidential election affect transatlantic relations? For instance, we will be watching to see if Trump begins to lay the groundwork for imposing auto tariffs on German cars, perhaps as a means of strengthening his political position in the swing state of Michigan.
Finally, will France succeed in its efforts to broker a meeting between Trump and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, and might this lead to negotiations to replace the JCPOA?
Thank you for reading the Trans-Atlantic Scorecard.
Trans-Atlantic Scorecard maintained by Sam Denney, Filippos Letsas, and Ted Reinert. Additional research by Naz Gocek and Cassandra Heward. Digital design and web development by Eric Abalahin, Abigail Kaunda, Yohann Paris, Rachel Slattery, and Cameron Zotter.
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