This article first appeared in Chatham House. The views are of the author(s).
As they consider the art of the deal, negotiators on both sides of the Brexit discussions must ask a central question: what are the consequences of the uncoupling for Britain and for the European Union without the UK?
If the perception is that the EU is losing a star from its line-up, British negotiators can expect to wield more leverage in setting the terms. Unfortunately, if the state of the British economy is used as a measure of star power, the picture looks bleak at the moment: growth in the UK has dropped to the bottom of the G7, with forecasts slashed even further by the IMF; inflation has spiked while overall economic performance measured by economic growth per capita, literacy, growth in wages and infrastructure investments compare unfavourably with that of key EU nations, such as France, Germany, Italy and Spain.
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