Election Fundamentals: The Economy, the War and the President

The current economic and political climate in the U.S. has generated a strong market for change in the 2008 elections. A troubled economy, an unpopular war and a discredited Republican president would seem to give the Democrats a huge advantage this November. Yet the contest between Senators John McCain and Barack Obama remains remarkably close.

On September 26, the Brookings Institution’s Opportunity 08 project, in partnership with the Center for the Study of Democratic Politics at Princeton University’s Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, hosted the second of four roundtable discussions which will examine key questions about American electoral politics and their connection with the 2008 campaign.

Brookings Senior Fellow Thomas Mann joined Princeton’s Larry Bartels to explore whether peace and prosperity factor into electoral outcomes; whether an incumbent president’s low approval ratings traditionally hurt his party nominee’s chances; and whether a candidate’s character and effective campaigning can overcome a strategic disadvantage on the issues. Other panelists included Robert Erikson of Columbia University, John Mueller of Ohio State University and Ron Elving of National Public Radio.

After the presentations, panelists took audience questions.

Event Materials:
Download Robert Erikson’s event handouts »

Upcoming Events: Assessing Election Factors
As the presidential campaign comes down to its final weeks, Brookings and Princeton University will hold a series of Opportunity 08 events examining critical factors that could determine the outcome with Brookings scholar and presidential elections expert Thomas Mann.

• October 17: an analysis of the candidates’ ideology and image as well as the role of race in the campaign.
• October 31: an examination of how money, advertising and voter mobilization efforts are shaping up in the final, decisive week.