Center on the United States and Europe
Erdogan wants to protect the last opposition stronghold in Idlib and wants to avoid another wave of refugees. He’s rightly frustrated that the bulk of the Syrian refugee crisis has fallen on him to manage. But it’s problematic for him to try to blackmail the E.U. to help him by opening the gates, even as at the same time the E.U. and the international community are not stepping up to the problem.
By actively exploiting divisions within American society and having its activities revealed, the Kremlin has ensured that its longer-term goal of having the U.S. remove sanctions and return to a less confrontational relationship so far has been thwarted.
Any figures that radicalize politics and do harm to center views and unity in the United States are good for Putin’s Russia.