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The Global Economy in 2030

Trends and Strategies for Europe

By Daniel Gros and Cinzia Alcidi
CEPS_GlobalEconomy_OK.indd

Long-standing economic trends that were disrupted by the global financial crisis can no longer be counted on as a reliable guide for understanding and charting the future. To provide a more accurate analysis of the likely course of worldwide financial developments, this volume concentrates on a set of critical economic factors and offers a description of the possible evolution of their reach and scope. The Global Economy in 2030 is the result of a collaborative effort of CEPS, the Centre International de Recherches et d’Etudes Monétaires, the Institute of Studies for the Integration of Systems, and Société Européenne d’Economie.

Contents

1. Executive Summary

Part I. Global Drivers of Growth

2. Population and Human Capital

3. Capital and Capital Markets

4. Globalization

5. Technology and Innovation

6. Natural Resources: Energy and Metals

Part II. Economic Growth and Prosperity in 2030

7. The State of the Global Economy in 2030

8. The Impact of Growth on Affluence and Poverty

9. The Impact of Growth on Climate Change

Part III. The EU’s Transition Towards 2030

10. The Outcome of the Nemesis Model: Introduction

11. Europe as Whole

12. A More Detailed Approach

13. The Consequence of Higher Productivity Gains

14. Conclusions

Part IV. Policy Challenges and Game Changers for the EU

15. A Smaller EU in the World Economy

16. Facing an Ageing World

17. The EU Needs to Focus Its Trade Policy

18. Centrifugal Forces in Europe

19. Climate Change Challenge

20. Demographic Cooling Down in the Euro-Mediterranean

21. Is the World Economy Becoming Less Democratic?

22. A Global Game Changer from China

23. The Economic Emergence of Sub-Saharan Africa

24. Hydraulic Fracking

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