Charts of the week: Incarceration rates, economic development incentives, and America’s minority-white future

Click on the links or charts to access the full research.

GROWING UP IN POVERTY INCREASES THE LIKELIHOOD OF INCARCERATION

In a recent study, Senior Fellow Adam Looney and Nicholas Turner use IRS data to analyze economic characteristics and labor market outcomes of the incarcerated population. They find that “boys who grew up in families in the bottom 10 percent of the income distribution—families earning less than about $14,000—are 20 times more likely to be in prison on a given day in their early 30s than children born to the wealthiest families.”

ECONOMIC INCENTIVES DISPROPORTIONATELY GO TO FIRMS IN ADVANCED INDUSTRIES

In their new paper, Metropolitan Policy Program Fellow Joseph Parilla and Sifan Liu analyze economic incentives in four U.S. cities—Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Salt Lake County, and San Diego—to advance a framework for inclusive economic development. They find that “across all four cities, local and state economic development incentives disproportionately go to firms in advanced industries.”

THE UNITED STATES IS PROJECTED TO BE MINORITY WHITE IN 2045

According to William Frey, demographer and senior fellow in the Metropolitan Policy Program, new Census data project the United States will become “minority white” in 2045, at which time whites will comprise 49.9 percent of the population, Hispanics 24.6 percent, blacks 13.1 percent, and Asians 7.8 percent. Frey also notes that this shift is the result of population growth continuing in combined racial minority populations between 2018 and 2060. The aging white population during that time frame will see modest immediate gain through 2023, and then experience a long-term decline through 2060.