Bruce Riedel
[The Saudi investigation is merely] a poorly done coverup. Their story line is completely implausible—a team of fifteen killers travels to Istanbul where they take charge of a diplomatic facility with no instructions from the Saudi leadership and kill Jamal Khashoggi. The mastermind of the murder is undoubtedly the crown prince, which is why there is a coverup... The Treasury sanctions [targeting Saudi officials implicated in the Khashoggi assassination] are mostly symbolic. The Administration is trying desperately to save M.B.S. from the consequences of his poor judgment.
One intelligence service [the Turkish] comes off as highly professional and competent. The other [the Saudi] comes off as inept, almost like Keystone cops. Of course, they are working in their home territory, but it has been impressive. On the other hand, the Saudis left behind so many clues of what they were up to. It is almost a case study on how not to carry out a covert operation.
[A recording of a call made after the assassination of Jamal Khashoggi by a member of the kill team featured him instructing a superior to "tell your boss," believed to be the Crown Prince, that "the deed was done."] A phone call like that is about as close to a smoking gun as you are going to get. It is pretty incriminating evidence.
This [the decision to end refueling of Saudi-coalition aircraft in the war in Yemen] marks the first time that the United States has taken a concrete measure to rein in the Saudi war effort. Two administrations have basically given the Saudis a blank check to do whatever they wanted. Now it will be harder for the Saudis to carry out airstrikes deep into Yemeni territory, going after the capital, for instance.
The Saudis have escalated; they have intensified the war [in Yemen]. It is a very public rebuke of both the secretary of state and the secretary of defense by the Saudis. The administration has not said anything about that. But curtailing air refueling would be their response.