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Wednesday February 10, 2010

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Agent-based Models

VIDEO

Save to My PortfolioThe Costs of Containing H1N1

Joshua M. Epstein, October 05, 2009

The Costs of Containing H1N1The Center on Social and Economic Dynamics at Brookings has released a comprehensive report on the economic impact of closing schools and day care centers to help mitigate the infection rate of the H1N1 virus. Center director Joshua Epstein highlights some of the study’s findings and notes that the cost for such closures could be substantial.

H1N1 Influenza, Pandemic Disease, Public Health, Health Care, Agent-based Models

RESEARCH AND COMMENTARY

Save to My PortfolioH1N1 Containment: Economic Cost and Workforce Effects of School Closures

Howard Lempel, Ross A. Hammond and Joshua M. Epstein, September 30, 2009, The Brookings Institution

Policymakers are looking at school closures to contain the spread of an H1N1 influenza outbreak. In the first comprehensive U.S. study of the economic cost of school and daycare center closures, the Center on Social and Economic Dynamics at Brookings finds that closing all schools in the United States for four weeks could cost up to $47 billion and lead to a reduction of up to 17% in key health care personnel. Read More

H1N1 Influenza, Public Health, Health Care, Pandemic Disease, Agent-based Models

VIDEO

Save to My PortfolioHow Computer Modeling Can Stem the Spread of Influenza

Joshua M. Epstein, August 18, 2009

Experts are bracing for an extremely high H1N1 flu infection rate this fall and winter. Joshua Epstein says computer modeling can help the medical community and policy-makers predict which populations are most susceptible to infection, how great the infection rate will be and how to stem the spread of the virus.

Agent-based Models, H1N1 Influenza, Health Care, Pandemic Disease, Global Health

RESEARCH AND COMMENTARY

Save to My PortfolioModelling to Contain Pandemics

Joshua M. Epstein, August 06, 2009, Nature

Joshua M. Epstein explains that agent-based computational models can capture irrational behaviour, complex social networks and global scale — all essential in confronting H1N1. Read More

Agent-based Models, H1N1 Influenza, Health Care, Pandemic Disease, Global Health

RESEARCH AND COMMENTARY

Save to My PortfolioPsychometrics Society Keynote on Modeling in Psychology

William T. Dickens, July 21, 2009, Psychometrics Society

William Dickens gave the keynote lecture to the International Meetings of the Psychometrics Society. He spoke on what psychologists could learn about modeling psychological phenomena from the way economists use models and illustrated it with his own work on cognitive ability. Read More

Agent-based Models

RESEARCH AND COMMENTARY

Save to My PortfolioComplex Systems Modeling for Obesity Research

Ross A. Hammond, June 15, 2009, Preventing Chronic Disease

Obesity has grown rapidly into a major public health challenge in the United States and worldwide. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has said that as many as one-third of Americans are obese. Ross Hammond explains how techniques from the field of complexity science can inform both scientific study of obesity and effective policies to combat it. Read More

Agent-based Models, Quality-of-Life Issues, Public Health

VIDEO

Save to My PortfolioContaining the Spread of Swine Flu and Other Diseases through Dynamic Modeling

Ross A. Hammond, April 28, 2009

Containing the Spread of Swine Flu and Other Diseases through Dynamic ModelingWith cases of swine flu rising in the United States and around the world, health officials are taking action to contain the spread and severity of the disease. Brookings Fellow Ross Hammond discussed the artificial society models he has helped develop that can aid professionals in better understanding how to prepare for and react to epidemics.

H1N1 Influenza, Agent-based Models, Pandemic Disease, Public Health, Global Health

RESEARCH AND COMMENTARY

Save to My PortfolioCoupled Contagion Dynamics of Fear and Disease: Mathematical and Computational Explorations

Joshua M. Epstein, Jon Parker, Derek Cummings and Ross A. Hammond, December 15, 2008, PLoS One Journal

Coupled Contagion Dynamics of Fear and Disease: Mathematical and Computational Explorations In classical mathematical epidemiology, individuals do not adapt their contact behavior during epidemics. They do not endogenously engage, for example, in social distancing based on fear. Yet, adaptive behavior is well-documented in true epidemics. Joshua M. Epstein, Jon Parker, Derek Cummings, and Ross A. Hammond explore the effect of including such behavior in models of epidemic dynamics.   Read More

Social Norms, Agent-based Models, Pandemic Disease

VIDEO

Save to My PortfolioHow Computer Modeling Can Avert Pandemic Outbreaks

Joshua M. Epstein, December 02, 2008

How Computer Modeling Can Avert Pandemic OutbreaksBrookings’s Center on Social and Economic Dynamics has pioneered a model that forecasts how infectious diseases like the flu spread. Center director Joshua Epstein says the Obama administration should use modeling to avert pandemic outbreaks and restore faith in the public health system.

Health Care, Agent-based Models, Technology, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Pandemic Disease

RESEARCH AND COMMENTARY

Save to My PortfolioModeling Social Behavior

Joshua M. Epstein, November 26, 2008, National Institutes of Health

Joshua Epstein gave a presentation on why model social behavior during a NIH conference, which explored the field of social behavior modeling, identifying opportunities, challenges, and gaps in our collective knowledge. Participants explored the scope and direction of the field through presentations and facilitated discussion. Read More

Agent-based Models, Productivity

RESEARCH AND COMMENTARY

Save to My PortfolioWhy Model?

Joshua M. Epstein, October 31, 2008, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation

Based on a keynote address, Joshua M. Epstein discusses and challenges enduring misconceptions about modeling, offering sixteen reasons other than prediction to build a model. Read More

Agent-based Models

RESEARCH AND COMMENTARY

Save to My PortfolioUnderstanding Strategic Learning through Game Theory and Agent-Based Modeling

H. Peyton Young, July 13, 2008, The Brookings Institution

Peyton Young addresses his recent game theory and agent-based modeling work in the Presidential Address to the World Congress of the Game Theory Society at Northwestern University. Read More

Agent-based Models, Productivity

RESEARCH AND COMMENTARY

Save to My PortfolioA Complex Systems Approach to Understanding and Combating the Obesity Epidemic

Ross A. Hammond, June 17, 2008, The Brookings Institution

In his latest working paper, CSED Fellow Ross A. Hammond says that obesity is a substantial and growing public health crisis worldwide. Many of its features—breadth of scale, diversity in actors, and multiplicity of mechanisms—are hallmarks of a complex adaptive system. Thus, according to Hammond, the lessons and tools of complexity science can help us better understand and combat the obesity epidemic. Read More

Health Care, Agent-based Models

RESEARCH AND COMMENTARY

Save to My PortfolioAgent-Based Modeling: New Methods in Estimating Impact

Shubha Chakravarty, April 15, 2008, Gates Foundation Grand Challenge 9 Meeting

On April 15, 2008 CSED affilate Shubha Chakravarty presented a talk on agent-based modeling at the Gates Foundation Grand Challenge 9 Meeting in Kampala, Uganda. The meeting focused on new progress in developing bio-fortified staple crop species, yielding discussion of using agent-based modeling to study crop diseases and genetic drift of new plant varieties.

 

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Agent-based Models

RESEARCH AND COMMENTARY

Save to My PortfolioArtificial Society: Getting Clues on How a Pandemic Might Happen by Creating a Huge Model of the United States

Joshua M. Epstein, April 02, 2008, Federal News Radio AM 1050

With the possibility of a national or international emergency, people need to know how to best be prepared. Joshua M. Epstein discusses how agent-based computational modeling has the ability to create artificial societies to model human behavior in an emergency situation. Read More

Agent-based Models, Pandemic Disease, Homeland Security, Health Care, Public Health

In Brief

The Agent-based Computational Modeling (ABM) technique pioneered at Brookings is an effective public policy research tool for complex social systems. ABM rigorously incorporates rich and diverse human behaviors; facilitates interdisciplinary research and stakeholder participation; and provides an efficient test-bed for the simulation of public policy interventions.

Featured Experts

Joshua M. Epstein

Joshua M. Epstein

Director, Center on Social and Economic Dynamics

A pioneer in agent-based computational modeling, Josh Epstein has recently done groundbreaking work on epidemics and bioterrorism. He has used computational modeling to study civil violence and smoking behavior.  


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Ross A. Hammond

Ross A. Hammond

Senior Fellow, Economic Studies

Ross Hammond’s expertise is in modeling complex dynamics of social, economic, and political systems using mathematical and agent-based computational methods. His current research topics include corruption, ethnocentrism, trust, behavioral epidemiology, and obesity.
Read More

H. Peyton Young

H. Peyton Young

Senior Fellow, Economic Studies

Peyton Young is an expert on social norms and how they affect the design of policy. He has also written extensively on political representation, voting, and distributive justice. He is the James Meade Professor of Economics at Oxford University.
Read More

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Q&A with Josh Epstein

Computational Modeling

"A high school math teacher in Omaha, Nebraska should be interested in the work at the Center on Social and Economic Dynamics because it makes the study of social dynamics fascinating ... And it’ll make kids thrilled with questions like, how do epidemics spread, how do fads start and stop, what are the spatial dynamics of disease, of violence, of all sorts of things .. "

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Spotlight

Policy CenterUrban-Brookings Tax Policy Center

The Tax Policy Center, a joint venture of the Urban Institute and Brookings Institution, is comprised of nationally recognized experts in tax, budget and social policy who have served at the highest levels of government.

Research ProjectLatin America Initiative

The Latin America Initiative provides high-quality, in-depth, and independent research across a range of economic and political issues, and offers policy recommendations aimed at U.S. and Latin American policymakers.

Research ProjectBrookings-Bern Project on Internal Displacement

The Brookings-Bern Project on Internal Displacement monitors displacement problems worldwide, works with governments, regional bodies, international organizations and civil society to create more effective policies and institutional arrangements for Internally Displaed Persons.

ExpertSuzanne Maloney

Suzanne Maloney studies Iran, the political economy of the Persian Gulf and Middle East energy policy. A former U.S. State Department policy advisor, she has also counseled private companies on Middle East issues.

Research ProjectAfrica Growth Initiative

The Africa Growth Initiative conducts high-quality policy research and analysis focused on attaining sustainable economic development and prosperity in Africa, while amplifying the voice of African researchers in policy-making and planning.

TopicEducation

The economic and political well-being of any society requires a well-educated citizenry. Brookings’s work extends beyond the K-12 bookends to include pre-school interventions, higher education and the challenges of education in developing countries.

ExpertIsabel V. Sawhill

A nationally known budget expert, Isabel Sawhill focuses on domestic poverty and federal fiscal policy. She is also co-director of the Center on Children and Families at Brookings.

ExpertAmy Liu

Amy Liu is deputy director of the Brookings Metropolitan Policy Program. Her policy studies include economic competitiveness, metropolitan growth and development, governance reforms, urban reinvestment, and social equity.

ExpertRichard C. Bush III

Richard Bush is the director of the Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies. His public service career spans Congress, the intelligence community and the U.S. State Department. He currently focuses on China-Taiwan and U.S.-China relations, the Korean peninsula and Japan’s security.

Policy CenterCenter for Northeast Asian Policy Studies

CNAPS conducts research, analysis, and outreach designed to enhance policy development and understanding on the pressing political, economic, and security issues facing Northeast Asia.

TopicHealth Care

Brookings is committed to producing innovative policy solutions to our nation’s most difficult challenges. The country may face no more important domestic policy challenge than the much-needed reform of our health care system. Through an institution-wide effort, Brookings delivers new ideas and offers policy solutions to improve health care both at home and globally.

ExpertDomenico Lombardi

As president of the Oxford Institute for Economic Policy, Domenico Lombardi’s work at Brookings focuses on the international financial crisis and the reform of the IMF and the World Bank. He is an expert on G-20 and G8 Summits.

ExpertMark McClellan

Mark McClellan works on promoting high-quality, innovative and affordable health care. Once commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration and administrator of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Dr. McClellan now directs the Engelberg Center for Health Care Reform.

ExpertMwangi S. Kimenyi

Mwangi S. Kimenyi is a senior fellow with the Africa Growth Initiative. He focuses on Africa's development, including institutions for economic growth, the political economy, and private sector development.

Research ProjectArms Control Initiative

Few problems pose greater challenges to U.S. national security than controlling, reducing and countering the proliferation of nuclear arms. The Brookings Arms Control Initiative brings the Institution’s multidisciplinary strengths to bear on the critical challenges of arms control and non-proliferation.

Policy CenterCenter on Children and Families

The Center on Children and Families studies policies on the well-being of America's children and their parents and seeks a more effective means of addressing poverty, inequality and lack of opportunity in the United States.

ExpertTed Gayer

Ted Gayer is the co-director of the Economic Studies program and the Joseph A. Pechman Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution. He conducts research on a variety of economic issues, focusing particularly on public finance, environmental and energy economics, housing, and regulatory policy.

ExpertVanda Felbab-Brown

Vanda Felbab-Brown focuses on the national security implications of illicit economies and strategies for managing them. She is an adjunct professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service.