U.S. Policy Toward a Cuba in Transition Summary

If one compares outcomes to stated objectives, U.S. policy toward Cuba may be the biggest failure in the history of American foreign policy. After an almost five-decade embargo and various attempts to isolate and undermine the Castro regime, Fidel has handed over power to his brother, Raul. Today the United States has little leverage to promote change in Cuba. Indeed, Cuba enjoys normal relations with virtually every country in the world other than the United States.

The Brookings project on “U.S. Policy toward a Cuba in Transition” is intended to help break this stalemate of failure. Over the next year, Brookings hopes to inject new ideas and insights into the American debate over how to best support the emergence of a democratic Cuba.

Under Raul’s leadership Cuban authorities have enacted a number of reforms. Cuban citizens are now able to enter tourist facilities, earn salaries in hard currency, and freely purchase cell phones, computers, and other electronic equipment. Wage caps have been reduced or eliminated. Agricultural authorities are disbursing state lands to independent farmers. Currency reform is being actively discussed, and many Cubans may soon find it easier to travel abroad.

Will Cuban officials build on these early efforts and pursue more fundamental economic or political openings? For the moment, full-scale democratic transition is not on the table, and freedoms of speech, press, assembly, and political association remain suppressed. Still, Cuba’s leaders do seem to have grasped the importance of improving their citizens’ material lives if they want to stay in power.

A key question facing the United States is how to structure its policy toward a Cuban government that seems prepared to experiment with change, if nothing else for the purpose of preserving its authority. Will modest reforms in Cuba let off steam that further entrenches the regime? Or will they unleash processes of change that cannot be controlled? The Bush administration has insisted that Cuban officials take concrete steps toward democratization before it will consider expanding bilateral ties. Yet many believe the United States may lose its chance to play a constructive role in Cuba if Washington does not alter its current strategy of diplomatic and economic isolation.

The Brookings project on “U.S. Policy toward a Cuba in Transition” takes an objective look at new political realities that have emerged in both the United States and Cuba. For the first time a majority of Cuban Americans now support normalizing diplomatic relations and lifting the travel ban (though support for the embargo itself remains strong). Meanwhile, the Raul Castro government has already begun to show a potential for self-interested pragmatism. Given fifty years of policy failure, the Brookings project explores new strategies to promote a peaceful, prosperous, and democratic Cuba.

Brookings has brought together leading experts from across the ideological spectrum to identify critical components – both internally and externally – that should be considered in the formulation of future U.S. policies toward the island. While consensus recommendations are certainly welcome, the primary objective is to facilitate a process of dynamic learning.

To accomplish these goals, the project will conduct six simulation exercises in 2008-2009 designed to test the responses of several strategic groups of actors to a variety of scenarios on the island. In addition, the project is also responsible for hosting periodic public events. Please see below for links to recent simulations, conferences, and conference reports.