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Past Event

A Foreign Policy Event

Iraq After the Elections

Iraq, Middle East, Global Governance, Islamic World, Diplomacy


Event Summary

Now that Iraq has held its first national elections since the fall of Saddam Hussein, Iraq's political development and the U.S. role there have entered a new phase. With the election complete, questions remain over whether the election and its aftermath will pave the way for security and democracy in the near future, or cause even more instability and conflict.

Event Information

When

Thursday, February 10, 2005
10:00 AM to 11:30 AM

Where

Falk Auditorium
Brookings Institution
1775 Massachusetts Avenue NW
Washington, DC 20036
Map

Contact: Office of Communications

E-mail: communications@brookings.edu

Phone: 202.797.6105

At this briefing sponsored by the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, a respected panel of experts will discuss where Iraq is headed and the implications for U.S. policy. Bathsheba Crocker, a fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the co-director of its Post-Conflict Reconstruction Project, participated in a CSIS mission to assess the reconstruction in Iraq and co-authored a comprehensive September 2004 report on the state of Iraqi reconstruction. Noah Feldman, a law professor at New York University and an expert on Islamic and constitutional law, advised the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) on the design of Iraq's interim constitution. Brookings Visiting Fellow Peter Khalil served as director of national security policy for the CPA from August 2003 until May 2004 and played a key role in building the new Iraqi military and reforming Iraq's security sector.

Military expert Michael O'Hanlon of the Brookings Institution and Kenneth M. Pollack, an Iraq analyst and director of research at the Saban Center, will also share their views on the post-election landscape. James B. Steinberg, Brookings vice president and director of the Foreign Policy Studies Program, will moderate the discussion.

Transcript

NOAH FELDMAN: Thank you very much. I'm honored very much to be here. The charge is to describe the political situation going forward, in the next five to seven minutes—not the situation going forward in the next five minutes, although sometimes it feels that way. So here goes.

The election results may show the Shia List just passing 50 percent and therefore having a clear majority in the National Assembly, or they may fall just a bit short and just form a large plurality. But I think that what I'm about to say should be of equal relevance under both circumstances.

The Shia really have two major challenges to deal with in the constitutional process going forward. The first they would have regardless of the insurgency, and that is to reach an arrangement with the Kurds, who will have a disproportionate share in the assembly—probably somewhere in the high 20 percent range in terms of numbers—to reach an arrangement that can satisfy the Kurds and keep them in a unified federal Iraq while simultaneously not entirely selling out the remaining—and they still remain—national aspirations of Arab Iraqis. This will be a very difficult negotiation, particularly because the Kurds see what they conceded in the Transitional Administrative Law negotiations as a floor, whereas the Shia see it as having been far too high a set of grants and would like to push well below that.

Read the complete event transcript (PDF—109kb)

Participants

Moderator

James B. Steinberg

Nonresident Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy

Panelists

Bathsheba Crocker

Fellow and Co-Director, Post-Conflict Reconstruction Project, Center for Strategic and International Studies

Kenneth M. Pollack

Director of Research , Saban Center for Middle East Policy

Michael E. O'Hanlon

Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy

Noah Feldman

Associate Professor, New York University School of Law

Peter Khalil

Visiting Fellow, Saban Center at Brookings


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