Past Event

CNAPS Annual Spring Conference

The International Relations of the Korean Peninsula: Can Diplomacy Succeed? What if Diplomacy Fails?

North Korea, Nuclear Weapons, Asia, Northeast Asia, Weapons of Mass Destruction

Event Summary

The Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies (CNAPS) at the Brookings Institution will convene its annual spring conference on Wednesday, April 28. Two expert panels will discuss the North Korean nuclear crisis and possible outcomes of the current stand-off.

Event Information

When

Wednesday, April 28, 2004
12:00 AM to

Where

Falk Auditorium
Brookings Institution
1775 Massachusetts Ave., NW
Washington, DC
Map

Contact: Brookings Office of Communications

E-mail: events@brookings.edu

Phone: 202.797.6105

Can the United States reach an agreement on nuclear weapons with North Korea that can be called "complete, verifiable, and irreversible dismantlement" of the nuclear program? If so, what would this agreement look like, and what steps would the two sides and others need to take to reach it?

If an agreement is not possible, especially in the near term, what would Northeast Asia be like if North Korea dropped whatever ambiguity is left concerning its nuclear status? Would it engage in nuclear coercion? Would Japan go nuclear? How would South Korea adjust?

Transcript

Strobe Talbott: This is an excellent turnout, relatively early in the morning on a beautiful day, when there are many temptations to be outside, and I'm glad to see that there's some media interest represented here in the room as well.

That all suggests that those of you who have come to Brookings this morning expect there to be a useful and very timely discussion of an important and indeed urgent topic, and that is certainly the case, since, as Richard said, the beginning session today will be on North Korea, which has been timely for some time now.

We are going to, in this first session, explore in some detail the essentials of a settlement that might be acceptable to the United States, but we're going to do that very much in the context of an awareness of what might happen if diplomacy were to fail and North Korea were to become a declared nuclear power.

I don't think there's any doubt in any of our minds that the situation on the peninsula is very serious, indeed. The word "crisis" is certainly justified. At the same time, the situation could be quite a bit worse. And recognizing that somber fact should spur us to seize the opportunities that may be in our grasp.

We have a group of outstanding specialists to frame the discussion for us this morning, and looking around the room, I can see that there is here in the audience any number of people on whom we can count to ask some tough, penetrating and indeed very expert questions.

conference agenda (PDF-117kb)
view the full transcript of the introduction and panel 1 (PDF—136KB)
view the full transcript of panel 2 (PDF—139KB)

View Full Transcript »

Participants

Introduction

Strobe Talbott

President, The Brookings Institution

PANEL I: The Shape of an Acceptable Settlement; Moderated by

James B. Steinberg

Nonresident Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy

PANEL II: Northeast Asia and a Nuclear North Korea; Moderated by

Richard C. Bush III

Director, Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies

Panelists

Charles L. Pritchard

Visiting Fellow, Foreign Policy Studies

David Kang

Associate Professor of Government, Dartmouth College

Gordon Flake

Executive Director, The Maureen and Mike Mansfield Foundation

Joel Wit

Senior Fellow, International Security Program, Center for Strategic and International Studies

Jonathan Pollack

Professor of Asian and Pacific Studies and Director, Strategic Research Department, Naval War College

Katsu Furukawa

Senior Research Associate, Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Monterey Institute of International Studies

Mike Mochizuki

Director, Sigur Center for Asian Studies, The George Washington University

Richard Betts

Leo A. Shifrin Professor of War and Peace Studies and Director, Institute of War and Peace Studies, Columbia University

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The International Relations of the Korean Peninsula: Can Diplomacy Succeed? What if Diplomacy Fails?