Bush v. Kerry: The Long Battle Begins

Transcript

THOMAS MANN: Now, in many respects, President Bush should be the prohibitive favorite for reelection. And as Peter will tell you, at least one economic forecaster says he is precisely that. Incumbent presidents have substantial advantages in seeking reelection and a rather impressive batting average over the years, an ability to use the Rose Garden and to control the agenda in ways that serve their interest.

It is difficult to find a president who was uncontested for renomination, who then managed to lose that reelection time. It is thought to be an enormous advantage for a president who has kept his own party sufficiently happy that he cruises to renomination.

We have also had healthy economic growth, certainly starting in the third quarter of last year, and all forecasts are that we will enjoy 4- to 5-percent growth throughout the period leading up to the election. At a time of national security threats, which we have experienced in this country, there is a rally-around-the-flag tendency that certainly works to the president's advantage.

I think it's fair to say President Bush has had substantial domestic policy achievements, in spite of extraordinary circumstances of his initial election to the White House, a series of tax cuts, a major education bill--No Child Left Behind--and that Medicare prescription drug bill that Democrats had fought to pass for a good long time.

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