Transcript
Richard C. Bush III: As Bates said, I am going to talk about PRC views of what are going on. One of the worst jobs in the world right now is to be a PRC analyst of Taiwan politics. Because you have your leaders breathing down your neck, asking, "who's going to win, who's going to win? Taiwan's the third rail of PRC politics, and if the result goes the wrong way, I'm in big trouble, so you got to tell me who's going to win."
In our trip, Bonnie and I, in talking to a number of Taiwan analysts, found that no one was willing to make a categorical response. This is not because these are not good analysts. These are people who work very hard at understanding Taiwan politics. I think that field has grown tremendously in the last 20 years, and there are a number of very good journals where all kinds of issues are analyzed. You can find, for example, a good article about how the Legislative Yuan in Taiwan operates; you can find a good discussion of the multi-member district, single non-transferable votes system. These are savvy people. But when it comes to this issue, people are very cautious. Most Taiwan analysts in the PRC were wrong in 2000, and I'm prepared to admit that, up until about March 1st in 2000, I thought Lien Chan was going to win, and it worked out the other way.
The official line in Beijing is: "we don't care, we're ready for anything." But if one pushes these people to make a guess as to who is going to win, as Bonnie and I did, if you listen between the lines in their analysis, then at least in early January, a majority would say that the Pan-Blues are going to win. These analysts cited several reasons for coming to that conclusion, and their reasons illuminate the way they think about Taiwan politics. First of all is the simple fact that this time the Pan-Blue is united, and in 2000 it was divided. Secondly, they look at different groups of voters, and try to infer, from what those voters think, how they will vote. First, they look at ordinary voters, and infer that most people are focused on their economic interests, and want responsible leaders. That, in their mind, works to the advantage of the Pan-Blue. They look at voters in Taiwan who they assume care about the management of good relations with the United States, and who have seen the U.S. criticism of Chen Shui-Bian over the defensive referendum, and that works to the Pan-Blue's advantage. They look at middle voters in general, and the fact that the Pan-Blue, in its electoral tactics, have tried to dominate the middle to keep Chen Shui-Bian on the wings, and that works to the Pan-Blue's advantage. They believe that businesses will not support president Chen to the degree that they did last time. And they tend to think that, when it comes to turnout, the Pan-Blue probably has the advantage. One can question the methods by which they do this analysis and inference, but this is the line of thinking.
Read the full event transcript (PDF—91KB)
View Full Transcript »