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Past Event

A Foreign Policy and Saban Center for Middle East Policy Event

Palestinian Refugees: Preferences in a Final Israeli-Palestinian Peace Agreement

Middle East, Human Rights


Event Summary

The fate of the Palestinian refugees is certain to be one of the most sensitive issues in negotiations over a permanent Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement. Any feasible solution must take the wishes of the refugees into account, yet their preferences remain poorly understood. What do the refugees want? Where would they go if they were granted the "right of return," and what factors are likely to influence their behavior?

Event Information

When

Wednesday, July 16, 2003
12:00 AM to

Where

Falk Auditorium
The Brookings Institution
1775 Massachusetts Ave., NW
Washington, DC
Map

Event Materials

Contact: Brookings Office of Communications

E-mail: events@brookings.edu

Phone: 202.797.6105

Dr. Khalil Shikaki, director of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR), presented answers to these questions, based on three comprehensive surveys of 4,500 refugee families in Lebanon, Jordan, and the West Bank and Gaza. The PSR carried out the surveys with funding from the Government of Japan, Canada's International Development Research Center, and the Konrad Adenauer Foundation.

Transcript

KHALIL SHIKAKI: Thank you very much for having me here. The issue of the future of the refugees is one of the issues that everybody thought we knew what the answers were, but very few of us wanted to go deep inside and really try to find out how the refugees would feel about all these details with regard to their own futures. We assume that we know what is best for them and what they want. So we tended to avoid asking them questions because we thought these would be sensitive questions that we shouldn't ask. And even we at the center, when we decided to do these surveys made it a condition that everybody involved in this issue will be a refugee. To the fieldworker, who would interview the refugees, we insisted that they too be refugees. We had to train a lot of people to be sensitive to the issues, and we did tons of testing attempts in order to be able to make our questions as sensitive as possible so that we could get useful and reliable data that would help us to understand what the refugees want.

We essentially wanted to do two things: one, try to understand what options are open to us—Palestinians, Israelis, and everybody involved, with the issues of negotiations; and secondly, we wanted to provide ourselves—in this case the Palestinians, particularly those working on planning for the Palestinian state, the future of the Palestinian state—we wanted to provide ourselves with enough data and information that would help us become better prepared for the process of absorbing refugees in the Palestinian state. We wanted to know the numbers and we wanted to know the profile of those who would want to come to the Palestinian state. We have done graphics on their socioeconomic conditions, their desires, wishes, needs, et cetera, because we were fearful that even as we developed a good strategy for negotiations, a strategy that would meet the basic needs of the refugees, we were concerned that once we've done that we would make a mess out of implementing whatever we agree on with the Israelis and that the process of absorption, absorbing hundreds of thousands of refugees, would represent another catastrophe in the history of the refugees.

Motivated by these two basic objectives, we have been preparing for this for three years. We started before Camp David, and we in fact wanted to finish everything before Camp David. We were not able to do that because we discovered that this would require a much greater effort than we anticipated, so we kept working at it, hoping to do it after Camp David. And then we had the Intifida and the overall environment was not conducive to rational thinking, and for at least a year after the Intifada it was not physically possible for us to carry out surveys in the West Bank and Gaza. Even the regular surveys that I usually do every quarter I was not able to do during the first year of the Intifada. Between September 2000 and July 2001, I was not able to do a single survey in the West Bank and Gaza. It wasn't until the end of 2001 that we were able to put together the team—again, all refugees—to begin to do the surveys.

Read the complete transcript (PDF-137kb).

Participants

Speakers

Khalil Shikaki

Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, Ramallah

Shibley Telhami

Nonresident Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Saban Center for Middle East Policy