Phase III in the War on Terrorism? Challenges and Opportunities

Transcript

SUMMARY (PANEL 1):
As the recent bombings in Saudi Arabia and Morocco have shown, the problem of terrorism has not vanished despite American military victories in Afghanistan and Iraq. While al Qaeda is the group most widely considered to have a "global reach" the activities of Hizballah and Hamas also reach beyond the confines of the Middle East—into Europe, the Americas, and the United States itself. The first panel reviews progress on the war on terrorism, identifies challenges inherent to confronting other groups, and addresses the broader historic and regional context.

Steven Simon, The RAND Corp.
"How Terrorism Has Changed Since
9-11"

The picture emerging from the U.S. war on terrorism, and specifically al Qaeda, is so far a fairly ambiguous one. Opinion in Washington has been transformed, as the pessimistic mood of a few months ago has suddenly given way to optimism. Thanks to the capture of key al Qaeda figures and the lack of terror attacks during the war in Iraq, the majority view now seems to be that al Qaeda is on the run, even "out of the picture." Yet one's view of al Qaeda's prospects may largely depend on one's definition of what al Qaeda is. Both sides have scored successes: the United States has captured or killed much of the organization's leadership, yet at the same time Osama bin Laden has managed to inspire a global movement. Although the future of al Qaeda is clearly up in the air, there are signs that the struggle is far from over.

First of all, it is unlikely that the losses to its leadership have crippled the organization. The part of the al Qaeda leadership that has been taken off the streets is arguably the "weaker half." The two top leaders, bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri, are still at large, and the sheer fact that figures such as Khalid Shaykh Muhammad and Ramzi bin al-Shibh allowed themselves to be captured may demonstrate nothing so much as their own incompetence. Meanwhile, the Egyptian wing of the group is reasserting itself, as it has lost only one key commander (Muhammad 'Atef, killed by U.S. forces in Afghanistan) and other figures such as Saif al-'Adel have risen in prominence. A plan for succession is also in evidence, as the group has been able to replenish its losses and move personnel into key positions despite U.S. pressure.

Furthermore, al Qaeda is still able both to fund its activities and to spread its message with relative ease. Roughly $120 million of al Qaeda assets have been seized, but this is thought to be only a fraction of what the group possesses. The group has also shifted part of its wealth from money into other forms which are difficult to trace, such as precious stones. Web sites affiliated with al Qaeda have continued to proliferate, disseminating bin Laden's ideology and promoting the killing of Western civilians; and how-to publications such as the Jihad Manual and the Encyclopedia of Jihad are still widely available on the Web.

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