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Wednesday November 25, 2009

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Past Event

An Economic Studies, Governance Studies and Center on Social and Economic Dynamics Event

Using Computer Simulations, Experts Devise Strategy to Contain Smallpox Attack

Defense, Homeland Security, Terrorism, Technology, Pandemic Disease


Event Summary

At this briefing, experts at the Brookings Institution-Johns Hopkins Center on Social and Economic Dynamics and the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health will reveal a powerful computer simulation graphically illustrating the effects of a bioterrorism outbreak of smallpox in a hypothetical American county. Based on the computer model, they developed an alternative strategy for vaccinating against smallpox compared to the strategy recently announced by President Bush.

Event Information

When

Monday, December 23, 2002
10:00 AM to

Where

Falk Auditorium
The Brookings Institution
1775 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20036
Map

Event Materials

Contact: Office of Communications

E-mail: communications@brookings.edu

Phone: 202.797.6105

Dr. Joshua M. Epstein, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, and Dr. Donald S. Burke, a professor of international health and epidemiology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, will demonstrate and explain the project, and answer questions.

Transcript

MS. CAROL GRAHAM: Good morning and welcome to Brookings for a discussion of one of the more pressing policy problems on our agenda, bio-terror. I'm Carol Graham. I'm Director of our Governance Studies program and Co-Director of the Center on Social and Economic Dynamics here at Brookings.

Prior to turning the agenda over to our two speakers, Josh Epstein and Don Burke, I wanted to say a word about our Center on Social and Economic Dynamics which is a joint effort of the Brookings Institution and the Johns Hopkins University and it's key to this collaborative effort between Drs. Epstein and Burke, and also a word about the Bloomberg School of Public Health at Hopkins.

Our Center on Social and Economic Dynamics is a joint center between Hopkins and Brookings where a number of us are trying to change the way we think about social policy and public policy. We focus on dynamics. Most social science focuses on equilibrium. We actually focus on dynamics. Phenomenon such as tipping phenomenon in crime, sudden explosions of civil violence, the dynamics of the market reform process and many other policy problems where dynamics are really what we are worried about and not equilibrium phenomenon.

One of our major focuses is social interaction. This is going to be key to what you see today. But both social dynamics and social interactions are very difficult to measure and to do so we need new and better data, and more importantly we need new analytical approaches.

What you will see today hinges on an agent-based computer modeling approach to social science that's been pioneered here at Brookings by Joshua Epstein and his colleague Rob Axtell, and it allows us to capture social interactions and social dynamics. Today you'll see it applied to a key public policy issue, bio-terror.

Key to this model and this effort is our collaboration with Professor Burke who's at the Johns Hopkins School of Public Health in Baltimore, and I wanted to say a word about the Bloomberg School of Public Health. It's the oldest, largest, and most academically acclaimed school of public health in the country. Its faculty comprises one-quarter of all faulty of U.S. schools of public health—in other words, one-sixth of all public health doctoral degrees.

The complete transcript is available in PDF form (PDF—83KB)

Participants

Panelists

Donald S. Burke

Professor of International Health and Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health

Joshua M. Epstein

Director, Center on Social and Economic Dynamics


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